Image Source: Unsplash

As expected, there was a dramatic deviation in the level of trade between the U.S. and China in April 2025.

The combined value of goods exchanged between the two nations plunged 17.8% from their level in March 2025, from $40.8 billion to $33.6 billion. Year-over-year, the decline is even larger, at 22.2%.

April 2025's plunge in trade is also large enough to affect the trajectory of the trailing twelve month average of the combined value of goods traded between the U.S. and China. We find the trailing twelve month average of trade between the two nations is $47.7 billion. That figure compares with our counterfactual projection for this month based on the trajectory of trade between the two nations from March 2024 through March 2025 is $48.9 billion. April 2025's deviation is $1.2 billion.

The following chart presents the monthly figures for the combined value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China with the trailing twelve month average and counterfactual projection of the trailing twelve month average through April 2025.

(Click on image to enlarge)

We anticipate the deviation between our counterfactual and the actual trajectory of trade between the U.S. and China will continue growing when May 2025's trade data becomes available next month.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900). U.S. Trade in Goods with China, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Nominal Figures, Total Census Basis. [Online database]. Accessed 5 June 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a container ship from the U.S. and another container ship from China that are both half empty and heading in opposite directions". We modified the image with a second prompt: "Only show one container on the U.S. ship and show two containers on the China ship. Also make the picture more colorful", which didn't work as well as intended, but the image produced does get across a sense of the relative difference in cargo volume transported in each direction between the two nations.

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