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The old playbook is dead.

Over the past few years, the economic center of gravity hasn’t just shifted—it’s splintered. The IMF flagged “geo-economic fragmentation” as a structural force reshaping trade, finance, and supply chains—not a passing headline (IMF, World Economic Outlook 2023).

What’s actually changed (and why it matters):

- Energy now prices “access risk,” not just transport cost. Norway overtook Russia as the EU’s top gas supplier—over a third of EU imports in 2024—so a single Norwegian processing outage sent EU gas to yearly highs (EU Consilium; Reuters).

- Trade architecture is going patchwork. Fewer big multilateral deals, more bilateral or mini-lateral arrangements and carve-outs—think regulatory seams rather than one global rulebook (Brookings; PIIE).

- Settlement is diversifying at the margin. Yuan use in Russia-related trade has surged, while India and Russia keep testing rupee-ruble options—messy, but directionally real. The dollar isn’t dead, but FX spreads are increasingly tied to sanctions and banking rails (Nasdaq/Reuters; Economic Times; Carnegie).

- Food & shipping flows were rerouted—and many stayed rerouted. With the Black Sea corridor constrained, alternative EU “solidarity lanes” and Danube routes took on a big share of Ukraine’s grain exports. Logistics premia and substitution trades lingered long after headlines faded (World Bank).

- Defense spending became a macro driver. Global military outlays hit a record $2.44T in 2023 (+6.8% YoY), locking in multi-year order books for defense and aerospace (SIPRI).

Two quick edges to start using:

1) Regional pair trades. Within a sector, go long the player whose assets and offtake sit inside “secure” corridors and short the peer tied to chokepoints. Post-2022 Europe showed this in energy; the same logic applies in agriculture and specialty chemicals (IEA Gas Market Report Q1 2023; IEA Medium-Term Gas Report 2023).

2) Event calendars that actually pay. Track non-market dates—sanctions renewals, port maintenance, LNG project approvals. These policy and operations nodes repeatedly repriced Europe’s “security premium” in 2023–24 (IEA reports above).

Most investors still treat these as one-off shocks. They aren’t. They’re the new baseline—and baselines are where edges compound.

The reset isn’t coming. It’s here.

The only open question is whether you’re still trading the old map—or ready to trade the spread between maps.

Full text and framework available here: The Market Reset

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