As of 12:01 AM on 2023-06-09, there is a 76.5 percent chance the Fed will pause in June, then hike a final time next month.

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The Fed meets on June 14. The market expects a pause. Odds are from CMEFedwatch. 

Target Rate Probabilities for July

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Looking Ahead to July

For the July 26 meeting, the market sees a 63.6 percent chance of at least one interest rate hike, with a 36.4 percent chance of no change from the current target rate range of 5.00 to 5.25 percent.

September is roughly the same as July with 59.5 percent chance of at least one hike from the current target rate range of 5.00 to 5.25 percent.

Things change in  November.

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Assuming the Fed gets another hike in June or July, the market anticipates at least one quarter-point cut by November. 

Weighted Odds

I like to do a  weighted odds calculation before and after each FOMC  meeting to see how much things change after the FOMC press conference. 

Look for that post next Wednesday or Thursday.

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