Look Ahead Dot Plot December 2021

Along with today's wimpy tapering announcement comes more Projection Material from the Fed including a Dot Plot of expected rate hikes.

Fed participants expect 3 rate hikes in 2022, 3 more in 2023, and still more in 2024.

Fade This Consensus!

I confidently make the same statement that I make after all these absurd projections.

Clown Acts

I am curious as to which Fed clown predicted a 4.75% Fed Funds rate for 2020. Another predicted 4%.

In today's clown act, five FOMC participants actually believe that in 2024 the Fed will hike all the way to 2.75% to 3.25%. 

Such predictions are amazing in light of what they would do to interest on national debt.

I am unconvinced the Fed gets in any hikes in 2022 and certainly not 6 by the end of 2023.

Amazing Underlying Assumptions

These ridiculous predictions assume there will not be another recession in "the longer run". 

I am confident there will be another recession by 2024. 

Admittedly, I am typically a early in my recession calls. But these clowns never see them and Ben Bernanke denied a major one we were already in. 

The only faith anyone should have in these Dot Plots is they will be amazingly wrong.

Fed Finally Satisfied at Reaching Inflation Goals, Doubles Rate of Tapering

For further comments on today's FOMC announcement, please see Fed Finally Satisfied at Reaching Inflation Goals, Doubles Rate of Tapering

The most interesting if not shocking news of the week is A Former Fed Governor Blasts Jerome Powell, Says Inflation is the Fed's Choice

Too Late For a Wakeup Call

100% Spot On
The Fed blew another bubble and still doesn't see it.

Assuming we need a Fed (We Don't) it should lean against speculation but NEVER does.

How can it when it cannot see the bubbles of its own making? https://t.co/3Y5k8dalu6

— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) December 14, 2021

Achieving a soft economic landing at this late stage is difficult, says Warsh in an obvious understatement.

Unfortunately, it's far too late for a wakeup call, The bubbles have already been blown. 

When bubbles burst guess what's next: Recession!