S&P 500 Rebounds As Fed Plans Size Of September 2024 Rate Cut

The trading week ending Friday, 13 September 2024 saw the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rise 4.0% above its previous week's close. The index ended the week at a level of 5,626.02, almost erasing the previous week's decline.

During the past week, there was one overarching factor that influenced investor expectations, which ties to the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut set to be announced on Wednesday, 18 September 2024. The answer to the question "how big will the cut be?"

Going into the week, there were very high odds the Federal Reserve would enact a quarter point reduction in the Federal Funds Rate. But that changed. By Friday, 13 September 2024, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects a 56% probability the first cut will be 0.25% and a 44% chance it will be 0.50%.

For the dividend futures-based model, that certainty there will be a cut, the new uncertainty of its size, and speculation over what will come after has led investors to shift their forward-looking focus from 2024-Q3 outward to the more distant future quarters of 2024-Q4 and 2025-Q1 ahead of the Fed's announcement.

At least, that's how we interpret what the latest update to the alternative futures chart shows. We find the trajectory of the S&P 500 is consistent with investors focusing their forward-looking attention on either 2024-Q4 or 2025-Q1.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2024Q3 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 9 March 2023) - Snapshot on 13 Sep 2024

Looking over the market moving headlines of the trading week ending 13 September 2024, we do find something remarkable. Before Friday, 13 September 2024, a push was being made to set the expectation the Fed's upcoming rate cut would be just a quarter point. While that changed on Friday, the momentum for that change has been building since the weak August 2024 jobs report was released a week earlier.

Monday, 9 September 2024

Tuesday, 10 September 2024

Wednesday, 11 September 2024

Thursday, 12 September 2024

Friday, 13 September 2024

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool anticipates the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in its current target range of 5.25-5.50% until next week. On Wednesday, 18 September (2024-Q3), the Fed is expected to start a series of 0.25%-0.50% rate cuts that will occur at six-week intervals well into 2025.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projection of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q3 bounced back up to +2.5% from the previous week's forecast of +2.1% growth.

Looking ahead to why the Federal Reserve will begin a new series of rate cuts later this week, on Tuesday, 17 September 2024 we'll show you some of the data the Fed is looking at as it considers whether the U.S. economy is falling into recession and on Wednesday, 18 September 2024, we'll show you the negative jobs data that may explain why a half point rate cut has become more than a remote possibility during the past week.


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