No Easy (Money) Way Out
With large cap US issues about to join the global stock market (VT) with a bear signal (see chart), the real economy reasons for the bear are largely concentrated in two interconnected risks: inflation and geopolitical. The two risks are intertwined and self-reinforcing, which makes them even more concerning. So, how do stocks avoid confirming the bear signal and, thereby, falling into a downward spiral?
In prior such recent (but less explosive) times, central banks came to the rescue. Is that likely this time around? And will more more more money do the trick anyway?
Unless there is a sudden and remarkable end to the carnage Putin and his kleptocratic buddies have unleashed, the self-reinforcing nature of inflation, geopolitical factors, and unprecedented sanctions seems to put the global economy in a box from which easy money is unlikely to save the day.
Disclosure: Accounts managed by Blue Marble Research may presently hold a long/short position in the above mentioned issues and their inverse comparables.
What is your current take on the market?