Harris is ahead in recent polls. Nate Silver has the odds of a Harris victory going the other way. Why?

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Here’s a Nate Silver Bulletin Public Snip.

Last update: 4:30 p.m., Wednesday, August 28: Maybe a little bit of an RFK effect after all? Kamala Harris’s lead peaked at 4.3 points in our national average the day Kennedy dropped out — and now it’s down to 3.5 points in the now RFK-less version of our model. That’s not bad, but with the convention bounce adjustment the model is applying, the November forecast is about as close to 50/50 as it gets.

The polls for Harris have been pretty good.

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But the polls need to be better for Harris because of the convention euphoria bounce. Is it fading?

Nate Cohn at the New York Times is asking the same question.

Here’s a gift link to Will Harris’s Lead Last? A Few Questions That Will Shape the Answer.

Kamala Harris has wrapped up an extraordinary month.

In that short time, she’s completely transformed the 2024 presidential election. She leads in most national and battleground state polls, and the real-world signs of the enthusiasm for her candidacy are everywhere, from filled-up stadiums to record-setting campaign contributions.

But this extraordinary turnaround wasn’t just about Ms. Harris. It was also about voters’ immense dissatisfaction with a Biden-Trump rematch, which had brought anxiety and dismay to millions. In an instant, Ms. Harris’s candidacy offered these voters what they had been yearning for: something new, different and more hopeful than that dreaded rematch. It uncorked years of pent-up Democratic enthusiasm. It let Ms. Harris bring the joy back.

Is this just a bounce?
Ms. Harris has made a good impression, but has she made a lasting impression?

If there’s a risk in her current numbers, it’s that she’s riding a polling “bounce” — a political sugar high, fueled by positive but unsustainable event-driven media coverage.

Here’s what we know: Views of Ms. Harris aren’t set in stone. A CBS News poll before the convention found just 64 percent of registered voters said they knew what she stood for. That’s what presented the opportunity for her to redefine herself over the last month. It also means it’s not safe to assume her position is durable today.

Can Trump redefine Harris?

Ms. Harris didn’t just improve her standing over the last month; Mr. Trump and the Republicans failed to define her in a negative light.

Here’s a bit of what the Republicans and Mr. Trump have tried:

• She’s a D.E.I. hire
• She only recently became Black
• She’s Comrade Kamala: a radical communist
• She laughs like a lunatic
• She’s “kama-kameleon,” whose positions change depending on her surroundings
• Nickname: Kamabla (I believe this is supposed to be pronounced “Kama-blah” — as in, she’s “blah”)
• Nickname: KamalaCrash (she causes markets to crash)
• Her crowds are A.I.-generated
• She’s phony and Canadian
• She’s not smart

Personal attacks. For the most part, they’ve fallen flat. There’s one obvious reason: These attacks don’t really strike at her integrity.

One reason “Comrade Kamala” hasn’t landed: Ms. Harris is not a hero of the activist left, like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. She did embrace many progressive positions in 2019, but she did so to earn the support of the left — not because she’s its natural champion. Indeed, her campaign was criticized for not clearly standing for much of anything.

Attacks on her consistency. The public may not see her as Comrade Harris, but it does see the case for “Kama-kameleon.” A majority of voters in the last Times/Siena polls agreed that she flip-flops on the most important issues.

Attacks for not actually representing change. Over the last few days, there’s been a new line of attack: She’s just more of the same failed Biden-Harris administration policies.

There’s no funny nickname or New York Post headline to go along with this attack so far, but its importance is obvious. Unlike the others, it goes to the heart of her early strength in the campaign: the notion that she represents change

In the last Times/Siena battleground polls, half of voters said she would bring “the right kind of change” for the country, slightly more than said the same for Mr. Trump. Whether Ms. Harris’s strength rests on firm ground depends in part on why, exactly, voters were so dissatisfied with Mr. Biden and the state of the country. It’s been a central question all cycle, and even without Mr. Biden at the top of the ticket, it still has the potential to decide the election.

Name Calling and Playground Bullies

Name calling has not worked and will not work. If that sounds like what I have been saying for months, it is because that is what I have been saying for months.

Trump acts like a playground bully. And the only people who like that message are those who don’t give a damn what Trump says or how he acts.

The undecided and switchable voters as well as those who will sit this out are unlikely to suddenly start liking a bully unless the bully switches tactics, Harris makes equal or worse errors, or something major gets in the way.

There is still time left for all of those to happen.

The Debate Over Debates

It is amusing that Trump wanted the microphones on in the debate with Biden but came out ahead because they were off. Now Trump wants the mics off and Harris wants them on.

Why?

That should be easy to figure out. Harris figures she can control herself but Trump won’t.

If both sides don’t interrupt each other there is no need for the mics to be turned off.

Recession

My base case is a recession has started. It may be a weak one or a stronger one that does not pick up much steam until after the election.

But young voters are angry, and they have plenty to be angry about.

I discussed this earlier today regarding the American dream.

The Not Affordable American Dream

Please consider The Not Affordable American Dream in Three Pictures

The American dream, of buying a home and raising a family is all but dead for many Americans, especially generation Z.

Recession Has Arrived

August 20: Improving the McKelvey Recession Indicator, No False Negative or Positive Signals

Adding the job vacancy rate to the McKelvey (Claudia Sahm) recession signal eliminates false negatives and false positives, and provides a much faster signal than Sahm.

August 20: The Share of People Seeking a Job Is the Highest Level Since 2014

A New York Fed survey shows a huge increase in the percent of job seekers. It’s especially pronounced for those making less than $60,000.

August 8: Trump Fires Arrows Missing the Target Badly, Will a Recession Save Him?

I don’t know the answer to that question, and nobody else does either.

Since February, I have been posting that young adults, renters, and Blacks will decide the election.

Those are the groups most left behind in the current housing mess.

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