US small business sentiment in September weakened for the first time in three months, according to NFIB. “While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges,” said the group’s chief economist.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggested on Tuesday that the central bank is nearing the end of its tightening program. “Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions,” he said in prepared remarks. “We may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a wide range of indicators to inform this decision.”

The IMF said it’s “premature” to conclude that US tariffs will have no effect on economic growth. The IMF slightly upgraded its outlook for global and US growth in its its latest World Economic Outlook report, citing a smaller-than-expected increase in the US tariffs.

Most US consumers see a weaker economy ahead, according to Deloitte’s annual survey. CNBC reports: “Most consumers surveyed — 57% — said they expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead, the consulting firm found in a poll of roughly 4,000 respondents. That compares to 30% who expected a weaker economy ahead of the year-ago holiday season and 54% in 2008, one of the years of the Great Recession.”

The government shutdown delays Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release its latest consumer price index figures on Oct. 24, about nine days later than planned. The Social Security Administration planss to issue its COLA update the same day.

The US 10-year Treasury yield continued to trade near its lowest levels of the year, ending the trading session on Tuesday at 4.03%.

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