Macro Briefing - Tuesday, Oct. 14

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday the government shutdown is starting to affect the U.S. economy. “It’s starting to affect the real economy. It’s starting to affect people’s lives,” he said in a TV interview. The latest update of the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index continues to reflect moderate growth: “The WEI is currently 2.42 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended Oct. 4 and 2.37 percent for Sept. 27.”

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JPMorgan announced that it’s planning a $1.5 trillion investment effort to bolster sectors critical to the US economy. “It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing, all of which are essential for our national security,” Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said in a news release.

Western companies have warned that the renewed US-China dispute over rare-earth materials will lead to “broken” supply chains and higher prices for chips, cars and weapons, the FT reports: “China dominates the production of rare earths, processing about 90 per cent of the world’s supply chain and over 90 per cent of magnet manufacturing.”

Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecasts overall holiday hiring for the last three months of 2025 will fall below 500,000 positions in the US. If correct, it will mark the slowest seasonal increase in 16 years.

The global financial system is vulnerable to shocks amid a recent surge in the price of shares and other assets, warns Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. “While most jurisdictions have seen a rebound in financial markets in recent months, valuations could now be at odds with the uncertain outlook, leaving markets susceptible to a disorderly adjustment.”

The average new car price in the US was above $50,000 for the first time, according to new estimates by Kelley Blue Book. The averge prices rose 2.1% in September was 3.6% higher year over year.


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The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. ...

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