The U.S. breakeven employment level — the number of jobs required each month to keep the labor market in balance — has declined after immigration changes, estimates a researcher at the Dallas Fed: “A new, high-frequency estimate of break-even employment shows a dramatic reversal in immigration flows, combined with cyclical shifts in labor force participation, has caused the monthly break-even requirement to collapse from a peak of approximately 250,000 in 2023 to about 30,000 in mid-2025.”

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After President Trump on Friday threatened new 100% tariffs on China, Beijing on Sunday responded “we are not afraid of” a trade war. On Sunday, Trump dialed down the rhetoric and wrote on social media: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment.”

US consumer sentiment ticked down in October, easing to a five-month low amid concerns about a slowing labor market and higher inflation, according to the University of Michigan’s survey. “Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds,” wrote the surveys of consumers director.

China’s exports rose at the fastest pace in six months in September. Exports increased 8.3% last month US dollar terms from a year earlier, beating estimates and rebounding from a six-month low in August.

Silver rose to the highest price in decades in London trading today, at one point reaching $52 an ounce. The silver market “is less liquid and roughly nine times smaller than gold’s, amplifying price moves,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc analysts wrote in a note.

The estimated “neutral” Fed funds rate remains roughly one percentage point below the actual level, according to analysis by TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager. The data suggest that the Fed can cut rates again at the Oct. 29 FOMC meeting and still maintain a moderately hawkish policy stance.

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