Macro Briefing - Wednesday, July 2
US job openings rose in May, reaching the highest level since November 2024. The increase surprised economists, who expected openings to decline. Despite the latest upturn, “We suspect underlying demand for new workers continues to recede amid growing signs of consumer spending fatigue,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo.
House Republicans are rushing to vote on Trump’s massive spending bill that was approved by the Senate yesterday by the thinnest of margins. Some House Republicans have expressed reservations about the bill, which could be a challenge to passing the legislation in a chamber where the GOP leads by only a handful of votes. Trump has asked Congress to present him the bill by July 4.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the central bank would have already cut rates this year, but didn’t because of tariffs: “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs, and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs. We didn’t overreact. In fact, we didn’t react at all; we’re simply taking some time.”
Chinese artificial-intelligence companies are eroding US leadership in AI, reports The Wall Street Journal: “In Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia, users ranging from multinational banks to public universities are turning to large language models from Chinese companies such as startup DeepSeek and e-commerce giant Alibaba as alternatives to American offerings such as ChatGPT.”
In a sign of the rising use of automation, Amazon deployed its 1 millionth worker robot. In a press release the firm said: “We’re also introducing a new generative AI foundation model we’ve designed to make our entire fleet of robots smarter and more efficient. Called DeepFleet, this AI technology will coordinate the movement of robots across our fulfillment network, improving the travel time of our robotic fleet by 10% and enabling us to deliver packages to customers faster and at lower costs.”
The ISM Manufacturing Index reflected contraction for a fourth straight month in June. The survey-based indicator ticked up last month, but remained below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting that industry activity was still slowing.
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