The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ticked up in August, above the 52-year average level. “Optimism increased slightly in August with more owners reporting stronger sales expectations and improved earnings,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While owners have cited an improvement in overall business health, labor quality remained the top issue on Main Street.”

China exports to the US fell sharply in August, dropping 33%. China’s overall exports continued growing last month, but the year-over-year increase eased to 4.4%. The trade war with the US is a factor. “One of the main issues facing China right now is that it has loads of manufacturing capacity, and that needs to go somewhere,” said Leah Fahy, China economist at Capital Economics. One of the new sources of export markets is Africa, where China has a $60 billion trade surplus so far in 2025.

China’s investment in solar, wind and batteries is expected to drive fossil fuel use lower, according to a report by Ember, a research group focused on clean-energy technologies. “Accelerating deployment of renewables, grids and storage in China, combined with electrification of transport, buildings and industry, are rapidly bringing China itself towards a peak in energy-related fossil fuel use, while also reducing costs and accelerating uptake of clean electro-technologies in other countries,” the group reports. “These twin trends are creating the conditions for energy-related fossil fuel use globally to peak and decline.”

Mortgage rates dropped to an 11-month low, based on the average 30-year fixed rate, which fell to 6.28% on Monday. A key factor: expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the upcoming Sep. 17 policy meeting.

A rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week is a high-probability event, according to analysis by TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager. One of several factors that implies a rate cut: the US Treasury 10-year yield has remained relatively stable, trading in a tight range lately, despite lingering concerns that tariffs could lift inflation. Slowing employment growth, by contrast, is considered a more pressing factor that will persuade to announce a dovish pivot.

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