The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index signaled elevated US recession risk for a third straight month. A spokesperson for the consultancy said: “At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024.”

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Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested a review of the Federal Reserve system is needed. “What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful,” he said in a TV interview on Monday.

The global economy is exhibiting more resilience than expected in the wake of higher tariffs, reports The Wall Street Journal: “The world economy grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the first half of this year, around its longer-term trend, according to JPMorgan.”

Extreme weather is raising food prices, according to a new study. “Recent spikes in the price of food were often associated with heat, drought and heavy precipitation conditions that were so extreme as to completely exceed all historical precedent prior to 2020,” reports Environmental Research Letters.

A growing gap is emerging between the rich and poor in consumer sentiment data. “Higher-earning Americans are feeling pretty good these days, but sentiment among those at the bottom is stagnating at much lower levels,” reports Axios.

The effect of tariff announcements on stocks is fading, according to research from Goldman Sachs. “Equity investors appear to be looking through potential near-term economic and earnings weakness and focusing instead on the prospect for robust growth in 2026,” wrote the firm’s chief US equity strategist David Kostin.

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