One-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.5% in March, according to the New York Fed’s consumer survey. Expectations were unchanged at 3.0% for the three-year-ahead horizon, and decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% at the five-year-ahead horizon.

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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he expects the inflation effects of tariffs will be “transitory.” In a speech on Monday, he said: “I can hear the howls already that this must be a mistake given what happened in 2021 and 2022. But just because it didn’t work out once does not mean you should never think that way again.”

Europe worries about a flood of cheap products from China, redirected to the currency bloc after US imposes high tariffs on Beijing. “The worst-case scenario is high U.S. tariffs” while “China is flooding the European market,” said Noah Barkin, a senior adviser for the Rhodium Group, a policy research organization. It would be “a double whammy for European industry. That is what Europe wants to avoid.”

S&P 500 Index triggers so-called death-cross indicator: 50-day average falls below 200-day average. The is the first instance of a death cross since March 2022, when a bear sell-off was in the early stages during a time of surging inflation and interest rates.

The risk premium for 10-year Treasuries rose to the highest level in a decade amid concerns that the Trump administration’s tariff policy will rattle investor confidence in US government bonds. The so-called term premium (an estimate of compensation that investors require for interest rate volatilty) on 10-year notes advanced to 0.71% last week, based on data from the New York Fed.

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