US Consumer Sentiment Index falls in November, approaching record low, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey. “This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation,” said a spokesperson for the report. “With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy.”

Senate advances a plan to end government shutdown. In a bipartisan breakthrough, Senators approved the first step toward ending the shutdown with a a package that would fund multiple agencies and programs for the full fiscal year, and all others until Jan. 30, 2026.

China lifts export controls on computer chips vital to car production, the country’s commerce ministry said on Sunday. Exemptions have been granted to exports made by Chinese-owned Nexperia for civilian use, it said, which should help carmakers who had feared production in Europe would be hit.

Yields across the Treasury curve, from 3 months to 30 years, have increased since the Federal Reserve cut rates on Oct. 29. The benchmark 10-year yield, for example, closed on Friday at 4.10%, up from 3.98% on Oct. 28, the day before the Fed’s rate cut.

Fed funds futures continue to price in moderately high odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the next FOMC meeting in December. TMC Research’s Fed funds model indicates that the central bank still has room to cut rates while maintaining a modestly hawkish bias, thereby providing an opportunity to provide a relevant policy response at a time of muddled and missing economic data. The current Fed funds rate is roughly 90 basis points above our estimate of a neutral rate, i.e., a rate that would be optimal given current economic and financial conditions.

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