The Coronavirus should be respected. It could transform and could kill many people, but so far there are not widespread pockets of that happening in the United States.

Donald Trump said way back on February 7, 2020, that the Coronavirus would be flu-like in the United States. He said it was like the flu and would be weakening more by April. More about that later.

From Author phone Luxor, Sphinx and Mandalay Bay

Las Vegas Business

But first, I took another look at Las Vegas. Last weekend we went to the Ethel M Chocolate Factory. This weekend we went to different parts of town. We see pockets of people behaving very differently.

In Trump country, Henderson, Nevada, the restaurants were full. Not a lot of shopping on a Saturday night, but people were not afraid of interaction. Up on Blue Diamond Blvd where there are more tourists, fast food restaurants had long, very long drive through lines. There were empty seats at In-N-Out but a huge drive through line. It was like two worlds apart.

At the Las Vegas Strip, it has been hurt by lack of planes. Only three planes counted as I randomly looked to the sky, which is very slow for a Saturday night. Nothing changed this weekend from last. With all the cancellations of events, the Strip is hurt, no doubt about it.

Driving down the Strip there were some people walking, but nothing like normal. It was empty by Las Vegas standards on a nice weekend night. Now we know the Wynn and others are closing from two weeks to a month. This will create great hardship for casino workers and employees who survive on tips.

Trump Hunch and Las Vegas Reality

As I said, Donald Trump said the Coronavirus would be weak on February 2, 2020. In early March he had a hunch the death toll would be low.

There are two competing stories going on. First, people are afraid to fly. Trump cannot change that. Families are torn as to flight safety. Permanent incapacity of the lungs may be a serious byproduct of the virus.

On the other hand, South Koreans and Chinese were flying to Las Vegas for weeks yet our hospitals are not overflowing. I know someone in the medical industry who confirmed this. From the Chinese Lunar New Year starting in the last week of January to March 11th, thousands of Chinese tourists flowed to Los Angeles and Las Vegas even though flights were limited in early February. Clearly travel agents in China got around all that.

An eyewitness working on the Strip proves this:

Over the past few weeks, after the U.S. government restricted travel from China in response to the growing coronavirus outbreak, she's noticed fewer tourists from Asia.
"I feel like there's been a little bit of a decrease,” McKimmey, 24, said as she worked near the Bellagio Fountains on Thursday.

Into March, as the virus exploded in China, only a little bit of a decrease in Chinese tourism to Las Vegas was noted. And yet, no explosion of hospital cases in Las Vegas. I am not painting Trump as the good guy. It just happens that something is wrong with the doomers' argument. And somehow Trump knew. As for Las Vegas, he was right! 

National Emergency

Donald Trump declared a national emergency and on that day he was very gloomy. My view is that he knows his hotels will be hit by the announcement as they cannot fill up without airlines flying.

I remember that before the announcement POTUS45 did not even want to ground seniors who could be at greater risk flying. Trump still believes the virus is weaker in the US and his hotels should still be full. There is evidence from the Las Vegas experience that he is right.

So What Is Going On?

The medical community has said that February 2nd was too soon for Trump to say the virus was weaker. Why was Trump so confident and why may he yet be proven at least partially correct?

One theory is that the virus could have been understood by our military, and so Mr. Trump had inside information from the United States military about the behavior of the virus. Someone with more knowledge than the CDC could have tipped Trump. I don't think his prediction was a result of flying blind with his own personal opinion. 

Virus weakness explains the crowds of Chinese and South Koreans visiting Los Angeles on to Las Vegas during the entire month of February, where there is currently no hospital crisis where there should be one. How come the doomers, the non-military medical community, are so wrong? Are they are being played by insiders? There are zero deaths from Covid-19 in Las Vegas. Except for Seattle, deaths are extremely low nationwide.

I have even heard from a trusted source familiar with Vegas hospitals about a local hospital group dropping requests for additional Covid-19 nurses! That is not what was expected.

And don't forget, Tom Hanks is recovering nicely. He was a high-risk guy with diabetes. Just more proof that the virus is not the same in the USA or in Australia as it was in China. There is still danger, but it has diminished drastically.

Going Forward

A good percentage of Americans have been frightened by the Coronavirus. The toilet paper shortages are real everywhere. The national emergency declaration did wound American confidence, though not completely.

It appears that we can bounce back fairly soon. The main economic indicator is hospitals in crisis. The secondary indicator is the willingness to fly. The third indicator is every day living and restaurant capacity. And the last indicator are crowds at events.

Trump will push ahead with rallies to show crowds are safe. He obviously knows something. He is an odious guy, but he is not stupid. I would just wish that he would share with America how he came to believe the US version of the virus was not as dangerous, way back on February 2nd. That is at least partially true.

The recovery will likely be faster than the doomsday scientists are calling for, but not fast enough to avoid serious damage to parts of the economy. Doomers are calling for bar and restaurant closings.

China and the USA

You would have thought that the Covid-19 would have brought the US and China together. But the Chinese may be done with the United States. The US continues to attack the China telecom industry and other industries. It will, as I wrote in the past, make China stronger:

Truth is, the jury is out on whether Donald Trump believes Huawei is any more dangerous than another other cell phone company. After all, he also said he could make a deal that includes Huawei. But the idea of economic nationalism appeals to Donald Trump.
We know that Bannon wants Huawei destroyed. He said it is 10 times more important than a trade deal. I actually think that, while this would cause short term pain, ultimately it would do China a huge favor if Trump takes his advice and crushes the 5G/Smartphone company. It would make China more independent of the United States. Bannon falls back on the 1974 Trade Act, specifically sections 201 and 301, which is a US law only. That act has no international status regarding the transfers of tech within sovereign nations. Yet the government is beginning to box itself into commitment to the bad law.
But what if America's version of economic nationalism is forever flawed? Ask yourselves, are you comfortable that Amazon and GM and Whirlpool and Trump's son in law, Jared Kushner, are not paying taxes so that America is starved for taxable income and the deficits are massive? Yet we know that China collects lots of taxes and always has enough money to subsidize favored industry and agriculture.

and:

China believes it has a responsibility to push its economy forward because it has so many people to take care of. It has not proven to be a belligerent nation and has certainly not engaged in or started anywhere near the wars that involved the USA. And China has most of the upwardly mobile customers in the world. The World Bank said it has raised 700 million Chinese out of poverty. 

The South China Sea is a hot spot, due to the United States claim that it is necessary for keeping the balance of power in the Western Pacific. Then we complain when our ships are harassed. We have bases all over the world rarely publicized to the American people. We can't afford them. Yet we have to mess with the South China Sea?

What wars are being fought by China? Historically, China has never been nearly as aggressive as has the USA. We keep our neighbors poor. They at least attempt belt and road. We are the weakest and most dangerous link in world affairs because we are the most powerful nation.

When we were on our game, we did some good things for the world, like the Marshall Plan and helping Japan. But there is a new kid on the block that is interested in economics more than power, and we need to quit being so paranoid and take the tariffs off and act like a normal nation. Free trade allows for efficiency and growth in the world economy.