We drove down the Strip 3/21/20. There were lots of cars, more than reported recently. Many lights were on. Had the Bellagio and Caesars had more lights, things would have been close to normal. Caesars did have the Forum lights on and Bellagio had the lights near the water feature on. The fountains are shut down.

I saw three people walking. The sidewalks were empty, with few exceptions. The casino floors were closed. It was so odd and eerie.

But Las Vegas is poised to bounce back. Mayor Goodman wants a reassessment in two weeks. A partial bounce back is doable, but with one major obstacle holding it back.

Strip: Property of Cheri Johnson used with Permission

The Weakest Link

New York City and Las Vegas have had a historical and positive link for many years.  Las Vegas gets many tourists and former residents from the Big Apple. New York influences the shoppes in the various upscale malls on the Strip. More importantly, New York and celebrity publicity doomed illegal gambling centers and drove tourists to Las Vegas in the 1950s:

Along with their connections in Hollywood and New York City, these interests in Las Vegas were able to use publicity provided by these media capitals to steer the rapid growth of tourism into Las Vegas thereby dooming Galveston, Texas; Hot Springs, Arkansas; and other illegal gaming centers around the nation.^[20] Nevada's legal gaming as well as the paradoxical increased scrutiny by local and federal law enforcement in these other locales during the 1950s made their demise inevitable.

But now, New York has become the weakest link to Las Vegas recovery. One of the first Covid-19 case here was thought to be a New Yorker.

New York has a problem with the virus because of density. Percentage-wise, there are fewer single-family houses there than in most cities. Multifamily residences dominate the landscape. And New Yorkers use public transportation on a massive scale.

Lack of Nimbyism seems to hurt pandemic control. I have noticed that Market Urbanists, who were gaining public momentum have fallen silent lately on social media. My purpose here is not to humiliate them. They do have the best interests of Americans priced out of housing markets at heart. Perhaps it is time for the government to fix the problem without crowding people into small areas. Health considerations matter!

A Chinese scientist has said that the key to Milan, Italy's failure is that that city allowed public transportation to continue. The Chinese Red Cross official said this:

Here in Milan, the hardest hit area by Covid-19, the lockdown measures are very lax. I can see public transport is still running, people are still moving around, having gatherings in hotels and they are not wearing masksNew York is exploding with new cases of the virus. Any recovery in other cities like Las Vegas may depend on the recovery of NYC.

How New York handles the Coronavirus crisis is crucial to the recovery of Las Vegas, in my view. Public transportation is a problem for New York in this crisis. While lots of Southern California residents will still drive to our city, the airline industry is crucial to long term success. How determined the airlines are to test boarding passengers for symptoms will also be a determining factor.

Las Vegas needs the airlines, needs New Yorkers and needs visitors who are healthy. Only time will tell how all this works out.

In the meantime, money is a real issue for tourist centers, even more than in other cities. Florida cities and Las Vegas could be hit harder than most. It is estimated that over 200 thousand casino workers are unemployed in the state of Nevada. There are countless restaurant and entertainment workers who also have no customers. 

New York-New York: Property of Cheri Johnson used with Permission

Money and the Virus

The government is attempting a stimulus package. While it appears generous, I have often wondered why we just can't use Fed money instead of taxpayer money to get money to the people who need it. Steve Mnuchin is doing all he can. He was a foreclosure king, and now as Treasury Secretary, he is attempting to help out American families. Mnuchin has just said that the virus may keep the US in lockdown for 10 to 12 weeks, into June. This will decimate economies and especially tourist economies. This warning by the treasury secretary is likely directed to New York, specifically. 

It is likely that while Mnuchin wants to help, 10 to 12 weeks will require much more. While all that is appreciated, certainly Fed money would be available in a larger and more effective way. Helicopter money is not UBI. It is safer than UBI regarding inflation. It does not tie the government to a massive ongoing welfare obligation that may unsettle bond markets.

I wrote two articles about helicopter money that could be helpful in a time where people have suddenly become empty of disposable income:

Eric Lonergan Precisely Defines Helicopter Money

Kyle Bass Says Helicopter Money Is the Only Way Out

There is talk that the Fed should buy corporate bonds. Why not invest in American families first? That will in no way reduce the ability of the Fed to control its balance sheet. Fed money is real money. If it is going to be used outside the banking system, for private bonds, it may as well be used for private families, the only group not bailed out from the Great Recession. The New Normal of slow growth is a result of this lack of demand from Mainstreet. Even Mnuchin gets it, that much of  Mainstreet is very vulnerable now, having been whacked by a Capitalism desperately trying to hang on from the Great Recession.

It is time to consider non sterilized one-time helicopter money in a big way. If people don't understand the concept they need to try harder. It would be a huge help to our nation.