Wednesday, January 3, 2024 5:53 AM EDT
This week, the main focus in the US will be the jobs report which is expected to indicate that hiring is slowing more meaningfully as economic uncertainty increases. In Turkey, all eyes will be on the release of December annual inflation which we expect to come in at 65.1%
US: Jobs report expected to indicate that hiring is slowing more meaningfully
After the dovish shift from the Federal Reserve at the December FOMC meeting, markets continue to price six 25bp rate cuts for 2024, in line with our long-held view. There are several key data releases that will give the markets food for thought as to what the risks are to this assessment. The ISM reports will give us an update on how businesses are seeing the situation and we expect them to indicate an ongoing soft trend in growth rather than clear evidence of a downturn. The jobs report will be the focus though and that is expected to indicate that hiring is slowing more meaningfully now as economic uncertainty increases. The unemployment rate is likely to tick slightly higher to 3.8% from 3.7%. Markets are on the verge of pricing the first rate cut for March, but we think the Fed is more likely to wait until May.
Turkey: Annual inflation expected to increase to 65.1%
In December, we expect annual inflation to increase to 65.1% (with a 3.2% month-on-month reading) from 62.0% a month ago, in line with the forecast presented in the latest inflation report of the Central Bank, while core inflation will remain elevated at around 72%. Inertia in services inflation, along with administered price and wage adjustments will likely remain as the major drivers of the inflation outlook in the near term.
Key events in developed markets this week
(Click on image to enlarge)
Refinitiv, ING
Key events in EMEA this week
(Click on image to enlarge)
Refinitiv, ING
More By This Author:
FX Daily: A Dollar Rally To Start The New Year
The Commodities Feed: Energy Starts 2024 On A Softer Note
Rates Spark: Enough To Hold Rates Down
Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any ...
more
Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. ING forms part of ING Group (being for this purpose ING Group NV and its subsidiary and affiliated companies). The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved. ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam). In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by ING Bank N.V., London Branch. ING Bank N.V., London Branch is deemed authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. The nature and extent of consumer protections may differ from those for firms based in the UK. Details of the Temporary Permissions Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the UK for a limited period while seeking full authorisation, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority’s website.. ING Bank N.V., London branch is registered in England (Registration number BR000341) at 8-10 Moorgate, London EC2 6DA. For US Investors: Any person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should contact ING Financial Markets LLC, which is a member of the NYSE, FINRA and SIPC and part of ING, and which has accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in the United States under applicable requirements.
less
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.
