Wednesday, January 3, 2024 5:53 AM EST
This week, the main focus in the US will be the jobs report which is expected to indicate that hiring is slowing more meaningfully as economic uncertainty increases. In Turkey, all eyes will be on the release of December annual inflation which we expect to come in at 65.1%
US: Jobs report expected to indicate that hiring is slowing more meaningfully
After the dovish shift from the Federal Reserve at the December FOMC meeting, markets continue to price six 25bp rate cuts for 2024, in line with our long-held view. There are several key data releases that will give the markets food for thought as to what the risks are to this assessment. The ISM reports will give us an update on how businesses are seeing the situation and we expect them to indicate an ongoing soft trend in growth rather than clear evidence of a downturn. The jobs report will be the focus though and that is expected to indicate that hiring is slowing more meaningfully now as economic uncertainty increases. The unemployment rate is likely to tick slightly higher to 3.8% from 3.7%. Markets are on the verge of pricing the first rate cut for March, but we think the Fed is more likely to wait until May.
Turkey: Annual inflation expected to increase to 65.1%
In December, we expect annual inflation to increase to 65.1% (with a 3.2% month-on-month reading) from 62.0% a month ago, in line with the forecast presented in the latest inflation report of the Central Bank, while core inflation will remain elevated at around 72%. Inertia in services inflation, along with administered price and wage adjustments will likely remain as the major drivers of the inflation outlook in the near term.
Key events in developed markets this week
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Refinitiv, ING
Key events in EMEA this week
(Click on image to enlarge)
Refinitiv, ING
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Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any ...
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