February 2019 CPI

Inflation took a step down this month. There is little need to repeat my monthly mantra. This takes us a step further to a situation where consumption may be waning, but the Fed thinks inflation is near their target because of high imputed rent inflation. And, they think the risk is toward more inflation because of the low unemployment rate and Phillips Curve thinking.

Trailing 12 month core inflation is at 2.1%. But, core-non-shelter inflation is down to 1.2%. (Sorry, not shown.I'll update when I can.) TIPS forward inflation is also below 2%, although it has recovered from its recent lows, but that is also a bad sign, since that suggests expected non-shelter inflation is below 1% for the next 5 years, unless there is a building boom around the corner.

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Dan Jackson 4 weeks ago Member's comment

When will you update?