Intermission is over. Today we resume my series on the global cycle theories that, probably not by coincidence, all point to major change unfolding in the next few years. Finishing it may take some time since I keep finding new material.

(If you missed—or want to review—the previous installments, check out this X thread for brief summaries and links to the full letters.)

Before we start, let me (gently) push back on a criticism I keep hearing. Some readers say these cycle theories are just “curve fitting” attempts to impose predetermined conclusions on conveniently useful data. That is always a risk in any kind of analysis. Confirmation bias is a powerful force, and we all have to actively resist it.

Two points: First, the idea that human history has repeating patterns is just reality. We humans are a repeating pattern. We live our lives, usually reproducing more humans whose personalities we shape, and they go on to do the same thing, with slight differences. The same happens to groups of humans: families, villages, and nations. They evolve and change in a process that includes a lot of repetition. Maybe “cycle” isn’t the right word for this, perhaps it should be a pattern, but I think either describe the process.

For that matter, even without humans, nature itself has cycles: the sun, the moon, the seasons. Animals and insects have identifiable life cycles during which their population grows and shrinks. I think it’s quite plausible, even likely, that similar processes help mold human civilization in ways that would be obvious if we were on the outside looking in.

Second, the cycle/patterns I am describing are all based on different observations but come to the same general conclusions in terms of the fin de siècle—the end of the cycle or period—for entirely different reasons. Yes, they are using the lens of history, and that history is the same for all of them, but they see a different set of reasons for the periodicity in these cycles.

If five different systems all come to the same (general direction) conclusion, then perhaps we should pay attention? I understand the future is unknown and lots of things can happen, but that is what every person, country, and culture said before they had their own crisis.

Even if you don’t believe all that, these ideas should still be enlightening. They help you think about what could explain what we are going through. They can uncover ways to make the best of it. Keep an open mind; we all have much to learn.

A final thought: If you don't feel that US culture (and much of the world in different ways) is in turmoil, you are not paying attention.

I'm going to simply list some of the issues facing us. I am not taking a position here, simply noting that these are issues that seem to divide us. Howe, Friedman, Terchin, Dalio, and myself all feel that “this too shall pass.” But not without a crisis.

We face tensions unlike I have ever seen, even during the Vietnam protest days. Then it was just the war. Now it is crime and not arresting thieves who simply raid stores. Somehow it is cruel to prosecute young thieves who clearly have permission to steal in some local areas (and that seems to be spreading) and not to care about the plight of the small business owners who watch their lives disappear.

Immigration. Education at all tiers. Race. When did gender become this fraught? Gods forbid we mention the dysfunctionality of politics at both the national and state and even local levels where both sides demonize the other as either uncaring, unthoughtful, recidivist troglodytes or extreme socialists bent on tearing down the culture of the country and dictating social mores.

Wealth and income inequality? Culture wars? Do we even mention the whole climate crisis debacle? (Whisper: Am I allowed to say the pharma community has not covered itself with glory in destroying the faith we had in “the science,” which now has overtones of Big Brother? How did that happen?) The list just goes on and on.

I think most people across the political spectrum believe even more turmoil is coming. Add in the national debt and fiscal crisis. This all leads to what I think will be The Great Reset. But today, we’ll look at another view of the cycles that make nations fail and then reform.

We will get through this period. I am hoping this series will help you decide on your personal path.

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