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Not sure if you noticed it too, but things have really been heating up lately. It's not only the temperature as we go into the summer months but in the blockchain space as well.

Not particularly in the price, which has been gradually declining since mid-April. Bitcoin itself seems destined to meet up with its 200 day moving average once again, a near term support level that I would consider long-term bullish. It's more a general feeling ately that business activity is picking up.

Yes, I realize that this assessment is largely based on anecdotal data, and I don't have a lot of evidence to back up this statement. In fact, VC funding is in a record-breaking slump at the moment. Not just in crypto but the entire start-up ecosystem is in turmoil.

By the dates, we can see that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10th, 2023, and the ensuing bank crisis are a symptom and not the cause. As we've stated before. It's all the Fed's fault. But back to my point...

A Strong Recession 

For several weeks already, I've been noticing things like the rise of Pepe along with other strange and silly coins, and thinking how is any of this evident of a broad economic slowdown? The simple answer is, it's not.

While VCs and institutions are on the backfoot, retail investors are dominating the markets.

Unemployment is extremely low across the globe, while inflation generally remains elevated. Meaning, that people have disposable income and generally understand that the value of their money is evaporating. Any rational person right now is out there looking to invest their excess, and many are willing to take on sizable risks.

The famous philanthropist and critical-thinking investor Ray Dalio gave an interview with Bloomberg last week that came to me as a strong bit of on point confirmation bias.

A Core Focus

Much to the chagrin of US regulators who are doing their darndest to try and squash us, a main theme of this massive retail risk-on investment wave is crypto.

This is evidenced fairly clearly by this LunarCrush graph, which shows a huge uptick in social media activity beginning at the end of March.

If there's one thing Gary Gensler has managed to accomplish its to chase the innovation offshore. Just today we heard the announcement that Andreessen Horowitz's massive a16z has opened a brand new office in London citing the UK's "ahead of the curve" crypto policies.

Over in Europe, I just went to check out CPD courses that are required to maintain my broker's license and found this gem...

Everyone else is moving forward with crypto, and while America is getting left behind. It's as our Head Crypto Analyst writes: The Way to Get Better US Crypto Regulations is to Leave the US.

Bitcoin Summer!!

The other, possibly unintended, consequence of GG's tirade is that he's essentially given a green light to bitcoin. It's a maxi's dream come true. All the cryptos are now in regulatory purgatory but bitcoin is totally legal and seemingly untouchable. Even Biden's proposal to tax crypto miners has been cleverly shot down.

Although blockchain data does not include geo-location, it's my hypothesis that a large portion of crypto activity in the United States has now moved to bitcoin. Now that the affects of Taproot are becoming apparent, many of the builder's I've spoken with lately are getting excited about building on bitcoin for the very first time.

Judging by market metrics, we can see consolidation into BTC. The bitcoin dominance index shows BTC's relative market share of the overall crypto market cap. Right now, it's sitting just below 50%. It's highest level in more than two years and on a strong upward trend lately.

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