Nearly half of all renter households are distressed. I am not surprised.
 

Distressed Households

The Census Department reports Nearly Half of Renter Households Are Cost-Burdened, Proportions Differ by Race
 

Over 21 million renter households spent more than 30% of their income on housing costs in 2023, representing nearly half (49.7%) of the 42.5 million renter households in the United States for whom rent burden is calculated. Although the median ratio of income-to-housing costs for renters remained unchanged from 2022 at 31%, there are differences in the income-to-housing cost ratio when comparing across householder’s race. That’s according to newly available data tables released today from the 2023 American Community Survey (ACS), 1-year estimates.

“Housing costs rose between 2022 and 2023 for both homeowners and renters. The median cost of housing for renters rose from $1,354 to $1,406 (after adjusting for inflation),” said Molly Ross, a survey statistician with the U.S. Census Bureau. “And new data from the 2023 ACS, 1-year estimates show that the share of a rented household’s income that goes towards these housing costs differs by householder race.”

Within Black or African American alone renter households, or households where the householder identified as being only Black or African American, 4.6 million (56.2%) paid more than 30% of their income on housing costs in 2023. 

Largest Annual Real Increase in Gross Rental Costs Since 2011

Also note that 2023 had the Largest Annual Real Increase in Gross Rental Costs Since 2011

The real median gross cost of renting — rent plus the average monthly cost of utilities and fuels adjusted for inflation — grew faster annually (3.8%) than real median home values (1.8%) in 2023 for the first time in 10 years, according to the 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) released today.

This marked the largest annual real increase in rental costs since at least 2011.

The Cost of Rent Up 0.4 Percent Again, CPI Rises 0.2 Percent in August

On September 11, I noted The Cost of Rent Up 0.4 Percent Again, CPI Rises 0.2 Percent in August

I expected rent and OER to moderate. They didn’t. The CPI rose 0.2 percent month-over-month but fell to 2.5 percent year-over-year.
 

CPI Month-Over-Month Rent and OER

The price of rent and OER rose at least 0.4 percent every month for 33 consecutive months. In June both were up 0.3 percent breaking the streak.

However, July and August were back to the old pattern. 

I have been discussing rent as a campaign theme since the beginning of the year.

Renters Will Decide the Election

April 20: People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

June 19: Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II

July 5: The Unemployment Rate Bottomed a Year Ago, Who’s Impacted the Most?

July 23: Signs of Severe Credit Card and Auto Loan Stress in Generation Z

My call remains. Renters (primarily young voters and Blacks) will decide the election.

If they break for Harris in similar numbers as 2020, she will win. If Trump can make significant inroads he will win.

When it was Trump vs Biden, record numbers of young voters switched from Biden to Trump.

Polls suggest that trend has reversed towards normal patterns. I don’t pretend to know the final outcome.

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