Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 21 And 28

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of October 21

       

October 22

       

Existing Home Sales - September

5.430M

5.490

5.450

 

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

-7

-9

-9

 
         

October 23

       

FHFA House Price Index - August

0.4%

0.4

0.4

 
         

October 24

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

214

214

 

Durable Goods Sales - September

-1.5%

0.2

-0.7

 
         

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

50.5

51.1

50.5

 

PMI Services Flash Index

51.0

50.9

51.0

 
         

New Home Sales - September

680K

713

699

 
         

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

-2.0

-2.0

   
         

October 25

       

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Oct (r)

96.0

96

96.0

 
         

Week of October 28

       

October 28

       

International Trade in Goods - September (a)

-73.5

-72.8

   

Wholesale Inventories - September (a)

0.3

0.2

   

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.10

0.10

   

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

2.0

1.5

   
         

October 29

       

S&P Case/Shiller Index - August

       

Twenty City M/M

0.4

0.1

   

Twenty City M/M - SA

-0.1

0.0

   

Twenty City Y/Y

2.4

2.0

   

Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA

       
         

Consumer Confidence

125.1

125.1

   

Pending Home Sale Index - September

107.3

107.3

   
         

October 30

       

ADP Employment Report - October

95

135.0

   
         

GDP - Q3 (a)

1.8%

2.0

   

FOMC

1.625%

1.875

   
         

October 31

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

       
         

Personal Income - September

0.3%

0.4

   

Personal Spending

0.3

0.3

   

PCE Price Index

       

Core PCE Price Index

       

Real Personal Spending

       
         

Employment Cost Index - Q3

0.6%

0.6

   

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.7

2.7

   
         

Chicago PMI

47.6

47.1

   
         

November 1

       

Nonfarm Payrolls - October

100K

136K

   

Private

90

114

   

Core Private*

       

Manufacturing

-50

-2

   

Unemployment

3.50%

3.5

   

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

   

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.0

   

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

   
         

PMI Manufacturing Index - October

       

ISM (Mfg) - October

49.0

47.8

   
         

Construction Spending - September

0.2%

0.1

   
         

 

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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