Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 21 And 28

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

   

 

 
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

 

Week of June 21

     

 

 

June 21

     

 

 

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May

0.50

0.24

 

 

 
       

 

 

June 22

     

 

 

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

18

18

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales - May

5.650K

5.850

5.72

 

 
       

 

 

June 23

     

 

 

Current Account - Q1

-$207.0B

-188.5

-207.0

 

 
       

 

 

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

62.1

62.1

61.5

 

 

PMI Services Flash Index

70.0

70.4

70.0

 

 
       

 

 

New Home Sales - May

890K

863

875

 

 
       

 

 

June 24

     

 

 

Initial Unemployment Claims

375K

412

380

 

 
       

 

 

Durable Goods Orders - May

2.5%

-1.3

2.7

 

 

International Trade in Goods - May

-$88.6

-85.2

 

 

 

Wholesale Inventories - May (a)

1.0%

0.8

 

 

 
       

 

 

GDP - Q1 (f)

6.4%

6.4

6.4

 

 
       

 

 

June 25

     

 

 

Personal Income - May

-2.7%

-13.1

-2.5

 

 

Personal Spending

0.4

0.5

0.3

 

 
       

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - June (r)

86.4

86.4

86.5

 

 
       

 

 

Week of June 28

     

 

 

June 28

     

 

 

Dallas Fed General Business Activity

32.5

34.9

 

 

 
       

 

 

June 29

     

 

 

S&P Case/Shiller Index - April

     

 

 

Twenty City M/M

1.5%

2.2

 

 

 

Twenty City M/M - SA

1.2

1.6

 

 

 

Twenty City Y/Y

14.2

13.3

 

 

 
       

 

 

FHFA Home Price Index - April

1.3%

1.4

 

 

 

Consumer Confidence

117.2

117.2

 

 

 
       

 

 

June 30

     

 

 

ADP Employment Report - July

450K

978

 

 

 

Chicago PMI - June

72

75.2

 

 

 

Pending Home Sales Index - May

106.2

106.2

 

 

 
       

 

 

July 1

     

 

 

ISM (Mfg) - June

61.2

61.2

 

 

 

Construction Spending - May

0.4%

0.2

 

 

 
       

 

 

July 2

     

 

 

Auto Sales* - June

17.0

17.0

 

 

 

Car Sales

3.8

3.7

 

 

 

Truck Sales

13.2

13.3

 

 

 
       

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

500K

559

 

 

 

Private

450

492

 

 

 

Manufacturing

30

23

 

 

 

Unemployment

5.8%

5.8

 

 

 

Average Workweek

34.9Hr

34.9

 

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.5%

0.5

 

 

 
       

 

 

International Trade - May

-$70.1B

68.9

 

 

 
       

 

 

Factory Orders - May

1.3%

-0.6

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders

2.5

-1.3

 

 

 

Nondurable Goods Orders

1.0

0.1

 

 

 
       

 

 
 
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Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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