Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Jan. 27 & Feb. 3
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior | ||
| Observation | |||
| Week of January 27 | |||
| January 27 | |||
| New Home Sales - December | 672K | 664 | |
| Dallas Fed Index - January | -3.0 | 3.4 | |
| Chicago Fed Natonal Activity Index - December | -0.12 | -0.12 | |
| January 28 | |||
| Durable Goods Orders - December | 1.0% | -1.2 | |
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - November | |||
| Twenty City M/M | -0.1% | -0.2 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 4.3 | 4.3 | |
| FHFA Housing Market Index - November | 0.4% | 0.4 | |
| Consumer Confidence Index | 106.0 | 104.7 | |
| Richmond Fed Index | -10.0 | -6.0 | |
| January 29 | |||
| International Trade in Goods (a) - December | -115.1B | -102.9 | |
| Wholesale Inventories (a) | 0.4% | -0.2 | |
| FOMC | 4.375% | 4.375 | |
| January 30 | |||
| GDP - Q4 (a) | 2.8% | 3.1 | |
| Pending Home Sales - December | 78.3 | 79.1 | |
| January 31 | |||
| Employment Cost Index - Q4 | 1.1% | 0.8 | |
| Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 3.9 | 3.9 | |
| Personal Income - December | 0.4% | 0.3 | |
| Personal Spending | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
| Chicago PMI - January | 40.0 | 36.9 | |
| Week of February 3 | |||
| February 3 | |||
| ISM (Mfg) - January | 48.3% | 49.3 | |
| Auto Sales - January | 16.6M | 16.8 | |
| Car Sales | 3.1 | 3.0 | |
| Truck Sales | 13.5 | 13.9 | |
| February 4 | |||
| Factory Orders - December | 0.8% | -0.4 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | 1.0 | -1.2 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
| JOLTS - December | 8.000M | 8.098 | |
| February 5 | |||
| ADP Employment Survey - January | 155K | 122 | |
| International Trade - December | -$80.4B | -78.2 | |
| ISM Services - January | 55.1 | 54.1 | |
| February 6 | |||
| Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary | 2.0% | 2.2 | |
| Unit Labor Cost | 4.2 | 0.8 | |
| February 7 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - January | 180K | 256 | |
| Private | 165 | 223 | |
| Manufacturing | 5.0 | -13 | |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 4.1 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.3HR | 34.3 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.3 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p) | 73.5 | 73.2 | |
| Wholesale Inventories (f) | 0.4% | -0.2 | |
| Consumer Credit - December | $12.5B | -7.5 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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