Economic Data Forecast For The Weeks Of April 26 And May 3

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

   

 

 
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

 

Week of April 26

     

 

 

April 26

     

 

 

Durable Goods Orders - March

2.5%

-0.8

2.5

 

 

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

30.0

28.9

 

 

 
       

 

 

April 27

     

 

 

S&P Case/Shiller Index - February

     

 

 

Twenty City M/M

1.1%

0.9

 

 

 

Twenty City M/M - SA

1.1

1.2

1.1

 

 

Twenty City Y/Y

11.8

11.1

11.6

 

 
       

 

 

FHFA Housing Price Index - February

0.9%

1.0

 

 

 

Consumer Confidence

110.5

109.7

112.1

 

 

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey

19

17

 

 

 
       

 

 

April 28

     

 

 

International Trade - March (a)

-$87.6B

-86.7

 

 

 

Wholesale Inventories - March (a)

0.7%

0.6

 

 

 

FMOC

0.125%

0.125

 

 

 
       

 

 

April 29

     

 

 

GDP - Q1 (a)

6.0%

4.3

6.5

 

 

Pending Home Sale Index - March

116.7

110.3

116.9

 

 
       

 

 

April 30

     

 

 

Employment Cost Index - Q1

0.6%

0.7

0.7

 

 

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.4

2.5

 

 

 
       

 

 

Personal Income - March

22.0%

-7.1

20

 

 

Personal Spending - February

4.0

-1.0

4.2

 

 

PCE Price Index

0.4%

0.2

 

 

 

Core PCE Price Index

0.2

0.1

0.3

 

 
       

 

 

Chicago PMI - April

65.5

66.3

65.5

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - April (r)

88.5

86.5

87.5

 

 
       

 

 

Week of May 3

     

 

 

May 3

     

 

 

PMI Manufacturing Index - April

60.6

60.6

 

 

 

ISM (Mfg) - April

65.2

64.7

 

 

 
       

 

 

Construction Spending - March

2.0%

-0.8

 

 

 
       

 

 

Auto Sales - April

17.5M

17.8

 

 

 

Car Sales

4.0

4.2

 

 

 

Truck Sales

13.5

13.5

 

 

 
       

 

 

May 4

     

 

 

International Trade - March

-$70.3B

-71.1

 

 

 
       

 

 

Factory Orders - March

2.0%

-0.8

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders

2.5

-1.2

 

 

 

Nondurable Goods Orders

1.5

-0.4

 

 

 
       

 

 

ISM Services - April

64.2

63.7

 

 

 
       

 

 

May 5

     

 

 

ADP Employment Report - April

600K

517

 

 

 

PMI Services Index

63.1

63.1

 

 

 
       

 

 

May 6

     

 

 

Productivity - Q1 (p)

2.2%

-4.2

 

 

 

Unit Labor Costs

-0.4

6.0

 

 

 
       

 

 

May 7

     

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls - April

875K

916

 

 

 

Private

860

780

 

 

 

Manufacturing

70

53

 

 

 

Unemployment

5.7%

6.0

 

 

 

Average Workweek

34.9

34.9

 

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2

-0.1

 

 

 
       

 

 

Wholesale Inventories - March

0.6%

0.6

 

 

 

Consumer Credit - March

$14.0B

27.6

 

 

 
       

 

 
 
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Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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