Economic Data Forecast For The Weeks Of April 26 And May 3
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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Week of April 26 |
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April 26 |
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Durable Goods Orders - March |
2.5% |
-0.8 |
2.5 |
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey |
30.0 |
28.9 |
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April 27 |
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S&P Case/Shiller Index - February |
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Twenty City M/M |
1.1% |
0.9 |
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Twenty City M/M - SA |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
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Twenty City Y/Y |
11.8 |
11.1 |
11.6 |
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FHFA Housing Price Index - February |
0.9% |
1.0 |
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Consumer Confidence |
110.5 |
109.7 |
112.1 |
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey |
19 |
17 |
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April 28 |
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International Trade - March (a) |
-$87.6B |
-86.7 |
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Wholesale Inventories - March (a) |
0.7% |
0.6 |
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FMOC |
0.125% |
0.125 |
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April 29 |
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GDP - Q1 (a) |
6.0% |
4.3 |
6.5 |
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Pending Home Sale Index - March |
116.7 |
110.3 |
116.9 |
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April 30 |
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Employment Cost Index - Q1 |
0.6% |
0.7 |
0.7 |
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Employment Cost Index - Y/Y |
2.4 |
2.5 |
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Personal Income - March |
22.0% |
-7.1 |
20 |
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Personal Spending - February |
4.0 |
-1.0 |
4.2 |
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PCE Price Index |
0.4% |
0.2 |
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Core PCE Price Index |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
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Chicago PMI - April |
65.5 |
66.3 |
65.5 |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - April (r) |
88.5 |
86.5 |
87.5 |
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Week of May 3 |
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May 3 |
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PMI Manufacturing Index - April |
60.6 |
60.6 |
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ISM (Mfg) - April |
65.2 |
64.7 |
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Construction Spending - March |
2.0% |
-0.8 |
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Auto Sales - April |
17.5M |
17.8 |
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Car Sales |
4.0 |
4.2 |
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Truck Sales |
13.5 |
13.5 |
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May 4 |
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International Trade - March |
-$70.3B |
-71.1 |
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Factory Orders - March |
2.0% |
-0.8 |
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Durable Goods Orders |
2.5 |
-1.2 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
1.5 |
-0.4 |
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ISM Services - April |
64.2 |
63.7 |
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May 5 |
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ADP Employment Report - April |
600K |
517 |
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PMI Services Index |
63.1 |
63.1 |
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May 6 |
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Productivity - Q1 (p) |
2.2% |
-4.2 |
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Unit Labor Costs |
-0.4 |
6.0 |
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May 7 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - April |
875K |
916 |
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Private |
860 |
780 |
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Manufacturing |
70 |
53 |
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Unemployment |
5.7% |
6.0 |
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Average Workweek |
34.9 |
34.9 |
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Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
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Wholesale Inventories - March |
0.6% |
0.6 |
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Consumer Credit - March |
$14.0B |
27.6 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.