JGBs are approaching what could be a significant breakout. I’m not sure how this will resolve, but ultimately, this appears to be a bullish pattern for the 10-year JGB, and a breakout could send rates significantly higher.

Last night, we surpassed the highs seen in February, making this a key development to watch.

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The 5-Yr JGB is also getting close to those February highs.

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What matters here is the spread with US rates, because any narrowing could lead USDJPY to decline, potentially breaking below the critical 140 level, which has been a significant support area.

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With Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) reporting results, we saw the 1-month implied correlation index rise today, and I expect this index to now begin trending higher as we conclude the big earnings next week.

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I’ve noticed that Wingstop (WING) has struggled lately, seemingly losing support at $315, likely influenced by Chipotle’s (CMG) weak results. Still, the stock has been under pressure for a while now, and I can’t help but wonder if this signals something more profound about the broader market’s appetite for risk.

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It is essentially the same thing when it comes to CoreWeave (CRWV), which fell below $125 today, which was support. With support broken, if the stock doesn’t snap back quickly, it probably has further to fall.

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Tesla closed just above its uptrend line after testing it earlier. The stock bounced because of the $300 put wall, but I’m not sure that will hold tomorrow. A break below this trend line likely means a pullback into the low $270s.

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The IWM continues to knock on the door of resistance around $225, but can’t manage to break through. A break above this resistance would be bullish for the IWM, potentially leading to a climb back toward the November 2024 highs. However, volume is declining, momentum is fading, and it looks like it’s beginning to form a wedge pattern. So, while a breakout and push higher would be encouraging, I’m skeptical it has the strength to pull it off. Instead, it appears to be losing steam, making a potential pullback to $212 look more likely.

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