Wednesday, August 7, 2024 7:00 AM EST
- Instrument:AUDJPY
- Percent move of instrument: -1.58%
- Winning trade percentage: 30%
- Start of seasonal pattern: Aug 08
- End of seasonal pattern: Aug 30
There is a strong seasonal bias for AUDJPY weakness during August. In the last 24 years you can see that the month of August is at the standout month of seasonal weakness with nearly 2% average falls. See the monthly ‘Average return by month’ bar chart below.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Over the last 20 years the AUDJPY pair has fallen 70% of the time for an average return of -1.66%. The largest falls was in 2007 with an 8.38% drop (the maximum fall during the period was over 12%) and the second largest was in the August of 2008 with a fall of 6.25% as investors bought the JPY in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis.
(Click on image to enlarge)
August is traditionally a month of higher market volatility. Traders and investors often reassess their portfolios during the summer, leading to reduced risk appetite. The Japanese yen (JPY) is considered a safe-haven currency, meaning it tends to appreciate during periods of risk aversion as investors move away from riskier assets like the Australian dollar (AUD).
Furthermore, the Bank of Japan is now increasing its interest rates, so a sharp move in higher rates could suddenly add to JPY strength. However, the BoJ have not been a central bank to move quickly or unpredictably, so it would only be strongly unexpected higher inflation data that could sharply change their outlook.
Trade risks
Previous seasonal patterns do not guarantee future seasonal patterns performance as the AUDJPY is driven by a variety of different factors.
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Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
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Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
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