Potential signal:

• USD/JPY could continue to rise, but I would only take a SMALL position long on a daily close above 143.
• I would have a stop at 141.50, and a target of 146

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday as there has been some signs that perhaps the Donald Trump administration is softening its stance on tariffs. However, since then we've seen a lot of different commentary coming from members that doesn't suggest that the trade war is anywhere near over.

And it in fact reiterates what the man said originally. That was then the tariffs would be extraordinarily high, but they would be a cap. They would come down over time. The market just took a couple of comments and went crazy with it. That being said, I think this was just simply an oversold market. It makes no sense to start shorting down near the 140 yen level. Furthermore, it was all over social media and CNBC that the US dollar broke through the 140 yen level. And that's true by about three pips. Generally, when you see it everywhere, that's when it's coming to an end. Now that doesn't mean we can't go below there. Of course we can, but it's insane to listen to people like that and go, I'm going to start shorting right here. You where were you at 158 or 149 or 147? So, these are the things you need to think about.

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Short Term Recovery?

So, I do think an intermediate term type of recovery makes a certain amount of sense. And in fact, during the day we saw a shot higher and then a pullback and then now another shot higher. I think the US dollar is starting to catch a bid for safety reasons. After all, that interest rate differential was a mile wide. And while some larger institutions have to repatriate money, I think we're pretty much through that.

The last couple of major crashes that we've seen in the dollar and other assets saw the U.S. dollar losing about 5 to 7%. And that's basically where we're at now. So, I think the risk is more to the upside than down, but clearly, if we break down through the hammer that was printed on Tuesday, then we have much further to go, much further. But there's obviously a lot of support right around this 140 level on longer term charge.

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