• USD/CHF ticks higher to near 0.8945 ahead of the Fed policy meeting at 20:00 GMT.
• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50%.
• The Swiss agency has lowered GDP growth to 0.9% and 1.5% for the current year and 2025, respectively.

The USD/CHF pair moves slightly higher to near 0.8945 in the North American session ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting at 20:00 GMT. The Fed is expected to deliver a 25-basis points (bps) interest rate reduction with slightly hawkish remarks on the policy outlook.

Market participants expect that Fed officials have become more worried about stalling progress in the disinflation process than downside risks to employment. The US core Consumer Proce Index (CPI) – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – remains steady at 3.3% in the September-November period.

Apart from the Fed’s policy decision, investors will pay close attention to Chair Jerome Powell’s speech to know the impact of incoming US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, such as deportations, higher import tariffs, and lower taxes, on the inflation outlook.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) remains broadly bearish as investors expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to cut interest rates further. For the Swiss economic outlook, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has downwardly revised growth targets for the current year and 2025 to 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

USD/CHF gathers strength to break above the supply zone plotted in a range of 0.8925-0.8950 on a daily timeframe. The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.8860 suggests that the trend is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating a strong upside momentum.

After breaking above Tuesday's high of 0.8975, the asset could rise to near the psychological resistance of 0.9000 and the July 2 high of 0.9050.

In an alternate scenario, a downside move below the round-level support of 0.8700 could drag the asset toward the October 23 low of 0.8650, followed by the November low of 0.8616.
 

USD/CHF daily chart

(Click on image to enlarge)

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