USD/CHF Price Forecast: Corrects To Near 0.8630 Despite Upbeat US Dollar
- USD/CHF drops to near 0.8630 even though the US Dollar resumes its upside journey.
- The SNB is expected to cut interest rates again in December.
- Investors expect the Fed to reduce interest rates gradually.
The USD/CHF pair drops to near 0.8630 from the two-month high of 0.8370 in Monday’s North American session. The Swiss Franc pair corrects even though the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after a mild sell-off on Friday, suggesting sheer strength in the Swiss currency.
Investors have underpinned the Swiss Franc against the Greenback despite the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to cut interest rates again in December. This would be the fourth straight interest rate cut in a row.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back to near 103.70 and aims to extend its upside above the 11-week high around 104.00. The appeal of the Greenback has strengthened as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates at a moderate pace.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November and December. Earlier, traders were anticipating the Fed to deliver a larger-than-usual rate cut of 50 bps in November. However, they priced out the scenario after a slew of upbeat United States (US) economic data for September.
The upside move in the USD/CHF pair appears to have paused for a while. However, the upside move could resume after it breaks above October 17 high of 0.8670. A breakout move will drive the asset toward the round-level resistance of 0.8700 and the August 15 high of 0.8750.
In an alternate scenario, a downside move below the September 12 low of 0.8550 will drag the asset toward the psychological support of 0.8500, followed by the October 2 low of 0.8450.
The near-term trend is expected to remain upbeat as the asset trades above the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which trade around 0.8580.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates near 60.00. A bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI (14) sustains above 60.00.
USD/CHF daily chart
(Click on image to enlarge)
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