Photo by Claudio Schwarz on Unsplash
 

Since January 2025, the USDCHF forex pair, like the U.S. dollar in general, has been in a bearish sequence. This bearish run continued the September/October 2022 bearish cycle after a five-month recovery between September 2024 and January 2025. In a bearish sequence, we prefer selling bounces in 3, 7, or 11 swings if the larger bearish cycle has not yet finished. The broader USDX bearish cycle that began in September 2022 was still incomplete, with no signs of any meaningful recovery.

Since January, all bounces have been corrective. Therefore, we have remained sellers of the dollar against major currencies such as the EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, and NZD in Group 1. In Group 2, we have been selling against majors like the CHF and some exotics such as SEK, NOK, and SGD. This post focuses on the USDCHF currency pair, which we cover in Group 2.

USDCHF Bearish Setup 7.29.2025 
 

The January 2025 cycle hit a low on 07.01.2025 and then began a corrective bounce against the prevailing trend. This corrective bounce developed as a double three structure, and we preferred selling the pair at the extreme of this bounce.

On 07.29.2025, we shared the H4 chart above with ElliottWave-Forecast members, highlighting a sell setup from the blue box. We use the blue box to mark the extreme zone of bounces in a bearish sequence and pullbacks in a bullish sequence. At the blue box range of 0.8100–0.8220, we expected members to go short and take partial profits at 50% of wave (c) of ((y)).

USDCHF H4 8.07.2025
 

As expected, the pair reached the blue box and sold off sharply. On 08.07.2025, we shared the H4 chart above with members. They hit the first target, booked profits on half the position, and adjusted the stop on the remainder to the top of wave ((c)).

Next week, we expect the pair to complete at least a 3-swing move lower toward 0.7970. The primary outlook, however, is for the pair to push much lower and attempt to break the 07.01.2025 low. Whether this happens in the coming week or the one after remains to be seen.

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