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The USD started the week on a positive footing after renewed pressure caused a steep sell off last week. Hopes of an EU/US trade deal and softening talk have eased DXY sell off.

The larger picture indicates a longer term downtrend is in play for the USD. Although US economic data has remained robust, the growing debt deficit, trade wars that linger on, confidence in the direction of the US economy have weighed in heavily on prices. In order to reduce the trade deficit, the USD would need to weaken far further, something the current administration has shown eagerness to see. A weaker $ would also bolster US exports by making them more competitive on a global level.

Weekly – Bracket low remains a key risk area, for now bears were rejected swiftly. Bracket low is a strong area of SUPP. Kumo remains bearish, with bulls trading below both short term and longer term EMA’s and SMA’s. Chikou span indicates near term bullish momentum. Whilst the Kijun sen remains at equilibrium. Bulls need to accept the upside of the bracket and build a base off there in order to further drive any comeback and make a drive for the 200SMA.

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YVWAP – Lower DEV has continued to hold firm as key SUP, bulls now driving POC and the 8EMA. Would need to see a daily Close above both of those areas to indicate further near term upside. Multiple RES areas lie ahead of VWAP….. 99.93, 100.01, 100.18. Followed by VWAP.

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