Market Performance:

• Major US stock indices advanced for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday.
• The Dow Jones added 50 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.5%.

Disinflation Expectations: 

• Major US stock indices advanced for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday.

• Core PCE price index in July rose by 0.2%, the lowest back-to-back increase in over two years, supporting hopes of disinflation after the recent CPI report.
• Personal spending surged by 0.8%, surpassing expectations of 0.7%.

Job Market and Fed Expectations:

• Job cuts surged over 200% in August, aligned with soft labor data, ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
• Markets anticipate an 89% probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in September and a 44% likelihood of a hike in November.

Dollar Index and Treasury Yields:

• Dollar index remained above 103, after a recent 1% decline.
• Yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held at 4.1%, a three-week low, supported by data suggesting the Fed may hold off on raising rates.

Labor Market Impact:

• Cooler-than-expected data from ADP and JOLTs suggested higher interest rates affecting the labor market, aligning with Fed Chair Powell’s concerns on overtightening risk.

Market Outlook:

• Traders are looking for signals in the upcoming NFP report and Fed decisions to guide their understanding of the current economic cycle and interest rate trends.

Market Review:

• In today’s session, the daily interval of the E-mini S&P 500 encountered selling pressure around the upper extreme of the month’s developing value area.
• The slight decline in the dollar for the session had an impact on the equities sector, and the negative volatility contributed to a more balanced market behavior.
• The prior volume profile structure displays a p-shaped pattern, with the perceived bias leaning towards the POC (Point of Control).
• The market exhibited interest (pullback) in the prior VWAP close level, resulting in some buying activity around it now.

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