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GDP Soars Above Forecasts

The US Dollar is trading higher today on the back of the latest set of US economic data yesterday. US GDP for the last quarter was seen surging higher to 2%. This was a stark jump from the prior 1.3% reading and the expected 1.4% reading the market was looking for. The increase has added to expectations that the Fed will press ahead with fresh tightening when it meets next month.
 

Jobless Claims Drop

Alongside the rise in GDP, initial jobless claims were seen well below forecasts, adding to positive economic sentiment. Speaking this week, Powell noted that further rate hikes were to be expected and the market is currently pricing in around two more .25% hikes this year. Looking ahead to the July meeting, rate hike probabilities have now soared to around the 90% mark from around just 50% a few weeks ago.
 

PCE Up Next

Today, the focus will be on the next set of US data with core PCE due as well as personal income data. Given the current rally we’re seeing in USD, it would likely take a sharp downside miss to derail the greenback given that consensus is now building around expecting a further hike in July.
 

Technical Views

EURUSD

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The failure at the retest of the underside of the broken bull channel has seen the market turning back down towards the 1.0785 level. This is a key support area for the pair and a break here will be firmly bearish, turning focus to the 1.0515 level next, in line with weakening momentum studies readings. 

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