• Big Tech earnings: Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Tesla
• Fed rate decision: Rates likely unchanged at 4.25-4.5%
• ECB rate decision: 25-bps cut expected, dovish tone
• Trump-related headlines may sway market sentiment

The final week of January 2025 is a big one!

There are Big Tech earnings (Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Tesla etc.), 4Q GDP prints out of the Eurozone and the US, along with a host of policy decisions by major central banks.

For this report, we focus on how the upcoming decisions by the Federal Reserve (a.k.a. Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) can influence the world’s most-traded FX pair: EURUSD.

EURUSD has rebounded since dipping below 1.02000 on January 13th, reversing its year-to-date losses into a 1.0% advance at the time of writing.

Still, this week’s scheduled events, along with any market-moving, Trump-related headlines, could determine whether EURUSD potentially (74% – probability) goes into February at the lower or higher end of the 1.0328 – 1.0600 forecasted range, per Bloomberg’s FX model.
 

Events Watchlist:

• Wednesday, Jan 29th: Fed rate decision

The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark rates untouched at the 4.25 – 4.5% range at this meeting; anything else would be a shocker. More importantly, markets are eager to know whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell, along with his fellow FOMC voters, believe that President Trump’s policies will reignite US inflationary pressures, thus diluting the 73% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a total of 50-basis points (bps) this year.

Should Powell and co. surprise markets with the narrative that more Fed rate cuts are due in the months ahead, that should extend EURUSD’s year-to-date gains.

• Thursday, Jan 30th: ECB rate decision; Eurozone 4Q GDP; US 4Q GDP

In contrast to the Fed, the ECB is widely expected to lower its rates by another 25-bps at the upcoming meeting, with a 50-50 chance of a further 75-bps in rate cuts by end-2025. A more dovish message by the ECB, who may be growing concerned about bigger downside risks for the Eurozone economy, could drag EURUSD lower.

Also, the Eurozone and the US are due to release their respective 4Q GDP growth figures. Should the Eurozone’s expected economic slowdown come in steeper, while the US economy continues to show off its remarkable resilience in the final quarter of 2024, that could worsen the downward pressures on EURUSD.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:

Monday, January 27

• CNH: China January PMIs; December industrial profits
• SG20 index: Singapore December unemployment rate
• GER40 index: Germany January IFO Business Climate
• MXN: Mexico December external trade

Tuesday, January 28

• AU200 index: Australia December business confidence
• US400 index: US January consumer confidence

Wednesday, January 29

• Lunar New Year holidays (some Asian markets closed)
• JPY: Bank of Japan meeting minutes
• AUD: Australia 4Q CPI
• SEK: Riksbank policy rate decision
• CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
• USDInd: FOMC rate decision
• NAS100 index: Earnings from Tesla, ASML, Microsoft, Meta

Thursday, January 30

• NZD: New Zealand January business confidence; December trade balance
• ZAR: South Africa Reserve Bank rate decision
• EUR: ECB rate decision; 4Q GDP; January economic confidence; December unemployment rate
• MXN: Mexico 4Q GDP
• US30 index: US 4Q GDP; weekly initial jobless claims
• US500 index: Apple earnings

Friday, January 31

• JPY: Japan January Tokyo CPI; December jobless rate, retail sales, industrial production
• GER40 index: Germany January CPI, unemployment rate
• RUS2000 index: US December PCE, personal income and spending

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