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Asian equities retreated overnight, following US markets lower. Growth and inflation expectations increased following a robust round of PMI data. PMI prints from western economies provided a more optimistic outlook for growth, however, the inflation read was more ambiguous with supply chain disruptions easing but service sector inflation remaining elevated. 

The data docket in the European session is scant today, investors will eye the German IFO business survey which markets expect to deliver further signs of improving conditions. Yesterday’s Eurozone flash PMI rose to a nine-month high led by service sector activity, impressively the manufacturing read also signaled a return to growth, aided by indications of further reductions in supply chain constraints. Expect today’s headline IFO index to rise to 91.5 from 90.2, supported by incremental improvements in current conditions and expectations, this  would be a fifth consecutive uptick to the best levels since midsummer of 2022

The Federal Market Open Committee will release the minutes of its February policy meeting this evening, the minutes, however, may now be a little stale given subsequent robust US data releases and predominantly hawkish rhetoric from policymakers. Nevertheless, these recent data releases reinforce the hawkish mantra that is likely to come out of the minutes that a policy ‘pivot’ remains a stretch target, as markets have repriced, believing the Fed will raise rates by a further 75bp by the summer and investors have abandoned the notion of rate cuts later this year..

FX Options Expiration New York Cut

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Overnight News of Note

• Stock Futures Inch Higher As Investors Brace For Fed Minutes
• Fed Minutes To Show Support Level For Larger Hikes, Higher Peak
• Biden Fed Vice Chair Search Set To Focus On Ex-Treasury Officials
• US Plan To Impose New Sanctions On Russian Individuals, Entities
• US House Panel Expected To Hold Hearing On Policy About China
• China Call Russia Ties ‘Solid As A Rock’ Amid Ukraine Peace Push
• BoJ Member Tamura Calls For Keeping Ultra-Easy Policy For Now
• Japan Benchmark Yield Tops Above 0.5% BoJ Cap In Second Day
• Australia Wage Growth Weaker Than Expected As Rate Bets Pare
• RBNZ Hikes 50Bps And Flags More To Come As Inflation Too High
• PM Sunak Secures Backing Of Key Brexiters For NI Protocol Deal
• German Business Morale Set For Fifth Consecutive Improvement
• Coinbase See Quarterly Loss, Crypto Winter Hits Trading Volume

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
 

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4030

• Primary support is 3970
• Primary objective is 4384
• Below 3960 opens 3890
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

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EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710

• Primary resistance is 1.0850
• Primary objective is 1.0430
• Above 1.0860 opens 1.09
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

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GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.22

• Primary resistance  is 1.2265
• Primary objective 1.1785
• Above 1.2265 opens 1.2337
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

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USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134

• Primary support  is 131.85
• Primary objective is 134.70
• Below 130.80 opens 130.11
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

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AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6910

• Primary resistance is .7050
• Primary objective is .6750
• Above .7150 opens .7250
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bearish

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BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200

• Primary support 23600
• Primary objective is 26700
• Below 20300 opens 19500
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

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