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US index futures are edging higher, while the UK’s FTSE has broken out, supported by the rally in oil prices. In contrast, leading European indices in Germany and France are struggling to gain traction. Gold and silver are pushing higher, while cryptocurrencies remain under pressure, once again highlighting a bid for safe havens. With no clear new catalysts emerging, markets appear hesitant to fully commit to a seasonal year-end rally. The S&P 500 has remained locked in a tight consolidation range since late November, failing to push to fresh highs. However, downside momentum has also been limited, reinforcing the view of a range-bound market waiting for direction. The key question remains: what will provide the next catalyst, and will it be bullish or bearish?
 

What’s moving markets today?

The standout development has been the surge in oil prices after President Donald Trump announced an oil blockade on Venezuela. This lifted European energy stocks, with names such as BP and Shell helping the FTSE 100 outperform. Brent crude jumped more than 2%, although this follows prices hitting their lowest levels since 2021 just a day earlier. Meanwhile, reports suggest the US is preparing additional sanctions on Russia’s energy sector should President Putin reject a Ukraine peace deal. This mix of supply risk and geopolitical tension has driven gold close to its October record high, while silver surged to fresh all-time highs above $66. This move came despite renewed strength in the US dollar and rising bond yields.
 

What now after the mixed jobs report?

The initial bout of dollar weakness following yesterday’s mixed US jobs report proved short-lived. Major currencies quickly retreated from their highs and are now trading below pre-data levels. Treasury prices slipped modestly, pushing yields higher, as traders stepped back from pricing in earlier or deeper rate cuts. November’s employment data appears to reinforce the current rate outlook rather than introduce a new catalyst, suggesting the Federal Reserve is under no immediate pressure to ease policy—particularly if inflation remains sticky. Attention now turns to Friday’s CPI release, with headline inflation expected to rise to 3.1% from 3.0%.
 

Watch for further signs of tech leadership rotation

As the year draws to a close, a clearer theme has emerged: mega-cap technology stocks that have driven this bull market may be losing their ability to lead on their own. Investor confidence in the sector is being tested, especially around stretched valuations and whether heavy investment in artificial intelligence can still be justified. Those concerns intensified after disappointing earnings from Oracle and Broadcom last week—both widely seen as bellwethers for AI-related demand. Results failed to meet elevated expectations, adding to fears that optimism may have run ahead of fundamentals.

A renewed rally in tech could still provide the catalyst needed to push the S&P 500 index to new highs. Ideally, leadership sectors need to hold firm while lagging areas catch up. Energy stocks are likely to stay in focus today if oil prices remain supported.
 

Bond yields remain the key risk factor

The short-term outlook for equities will continue to hinge on bond market dynamics. Rising Treasury yields typically place the greatest pressure on high-growth technology stocks, a relationship that was clearly on display last week.

Yields initially fell after the Federal Reserve signalled openness to further easing and announced additional bill purchases to boost bank reserves. However, that support quickly faded, with yields rebounding and equities slipping alongside them.

With yields staying elevated, markets appear unconvinced that the Fed is shifting decisively toward a dovish stance. Instead, it reinforces the view that interest rates may remain higher for longer—a challenging backdrop for tech-heavy indices. Unless yields move lower, the risk of renewed volatility in risk assets remains as year-end approaches.
 

S&P 500 technical analysis

From a technical standpoint, the broader bullish trend remains intact, despite the recent dip in S&P 500 futures.

As long as the shaded blue support zone between roughly 6790 and 6812 holds, as it has done over the past few sessions, the bulls should remain relatively comfortable. This area represents former resistance and aligns with the 21-day exponential moving average.
 

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A decisive break below this region would, however, bring the bears back into play. In that scenario, 6731 becomes the next downside target, followed by the psychologically important 6700 level. A deeper pullback could expose 6600 as a more medium-term bearish objective.

On the upside, 6900 remains the level to beat. The index has repeatedly struggled here, so a daily close above it would be technically significant, signalling an end to the recent consolidation phase. If that happens, a push through October’s high at 6953 would look like the natural next step.

For now, the trend is still your friend – but bond yields and tech direction may soon decide how long that remains the case.

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