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• US futures remained largely unchanged on Tuesday as investors assessed mixed economic data and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming plans.
• Market expectations suggest a high probability of the Fed pausing its tightening cycle this month, with anticipation of another 25bps hike in July.
• Apple’s shares experienced a slight decline due to concerns over the pricing of their new mixed-reality headset, while bank shares, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley, saw losses following news of potential capital increases under forthcoming regulatory rules.
• Oil stocks, such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron, declined in line with the downward movement of oil prices.
• The dollar index remained under pressure after soft US services data for May, supporting the case for the Fed to pause interest rate hikes.
• The latest payrolls report showed mixed results, with job additions in May but a rise in the unemployment rate and slower wage growth.
• Market participants are divided on the Fed’s next moves, with expectations of steady rates in the upcoming meeting but uncertainty regarding July.
• President Biden signed the new debt bill into law, averting a US default, and the Treasury Department is now set to resume new debt issuance.

The E-mini S&P 500 is approaching its rollover day for the September contract on Friday, potentially influenced by market conditions and facing bullish tendencies, although the current stronger dollar could weigh on market sentiment. From a technical standpoint, the daily interval indicates an imbalanced market favoring the upside, despite the previous session’s bearish close near a key swing high on the weekly perspective. The combination of positive volatility and yesterday’s close may contribute to a bearish bias among investors for the current session.

From the intraday perspective, the market shows a balance on the micro level, with potential targeting of extremes for absorption and rotational scenarios. During the New York trading session, there is a possibility of a push towards the prior day’s swing high, encountering selling pressure within the upward trend, contingent on market dynamics.

2 Months Ago

Looking at the median-term perspective, there is a mixed bias with a negative volatility signal, suggesting a potential inclination towards buying-oriented market behavior, which could result in a balanced overall market performance leading up to the mentioned rollover date.

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