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From a higher timeframe (HTF) perspective, the market is imbalanced to the upside, currently trading above the developing monthly value area. Last week’s profile shows a double distribution structure, with price now above the upper distribution. The POC of that upper distribution—around 6333—stands out as a key reference level.

On the daily timeframe, we observe a b-shaped profile and a break above value in the overnight session, adding a bullish tone for the upcoming hours. The developing VWAP near 6344 and the lower extreme around 6339 are key zones where traders may look to reload or add to core long positions.

In this context, it’s worth watching for signs of absorption or long liquidation near the highs, which could signal a short-term pullback.

Yields are negative, the dollar is strengthening—both boosting market sentiment—and Dr. Copper is also positive on the day, which may serve as a supportive macro factor.

As of the latest Commitment of Traders report (July 16), asset managers were engaged in short covering while also liquidating long positions. Meanwhile, leveraged funds increased their long exposure, though they remain net short overall—a notable development.

There are 9 days remaining until the next FOMC meeting, with approximately a 95% probability of no rate change. It’s better than a hike, therefore might be even sightly bullish.

Looking ahead, there is about a 60% chance of a rate cut in September which could boost market sentiment around in case inflation data does not see an uptick.

The information may be conflicting, but you can still find your way to the right market direction.

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