• The GBP/USD outlook shows the pound trading cautiously against a subdued dollar ahead of the Bank of England’s decision. 
• Despite the upbeat US ADP data at 42K, the ongoing US government shutdown limits the dollar’s upside. 
• Traders await the BoE monetary policy meeting with the MPC members’ vote split. 

The GBP/USD outlook remains range-bound, with the pair trading above 1.3070 on Thursday ahead of the Bank of England’s policy meeting. The central bank is expected to keep the rates unchanged at 4%. Meanwhile, policymakers remain cautious amid softer inflation and wage data, which strengthens rate cut expectations for the coming months. 

MPC members’ votes are expected to reveal a 7-2 split, with some favoring a 25 bps cut while others favor sustained progress towards the 2% target before further easing. Meanwhile, Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized that it would be too soon to discuss rate cuts, as monetary policy is expected to remain restrictive until clear evidence of easing inflationary pressures is seen.

Additionally, the markets remain focused on the upcoming November 26 budget as Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce tighter fiscal measures to manage high borrowing levels. Reeves has also warned of potential tax increases and highlighted the need to control debt and spending limits, as it could weigh on near-term growth but boost long-term fiscal outlook. 

On the other hand, the dollar remained subdued after the strong macro data failed to lift the greenback. The ADP data revealed a 42k rise in private sector jobs in October, after its earlier 29k decline in September. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI experienced a 52.4% increase, surpassing the forecast. 

Regarding further Fed easing, Chair Powell maintained his earlier stance of an uncertain December cut. Additionally, the dollar index (DXY) traded lower under 100.00 due to the US government shutdown, the longest in history, weighing on the US dollar. From a global trade perspective, the US Supreme Court raises concerns over the legality of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which could negatively impact the US economy. 
 

GBP/USD Daily Key Events

The major events in the day include:

• FOMC Member Barr speaks
• FOMC Member William speaks
• FOMC Member Hammock speaks
• BoE Monetary Policy Report
• MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
• GBP Official Bank Rate 

On Thursday, traders look forward to the BoE’s monetary policy report ahead of speeches from FOMC members Barr, Williams, and Hammock for further policy cues. Traders will be more cautious in watching MPC members’ votes to predict the probability of a rate cut in December. 
 

GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Recovery Stalls Near 20-MA
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart
 

The GBP/USD 4-hour chart shows a short-term modest rebound after the pair stabilized above 1.3070. The price remains below the key 20-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, reflecting a broader bearish bias. 

The RSI remains under 50.0, indicating recovery from the oversold region. However, a potential trend reversal seems unlikely. If the pair attempts a breach above 1.3100, it could extend gains towards 1.3170. Conversely, failure to hold above 1.3080 could trigger renewed selling pressure, leading to the 1.3000 psychological level. 
 

Support Levels

• 1.3075
• 1.3000
• 1.2920/
   

Resistance Levels

• 1.3100
• 1.3170
• 1.3230

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