• The gold forecast shows a mild rebound on Wednesday, driven by the fresh US macro-uncertainty.  
• The signs of economic uncertainty, risk-off sentiment, and bargain hunting underscore gold’s safe-haven demand. 
• Traders await the US ADP non-farm employment change, ISM services PMI, and commentary from President Trump for further policy direction. 

The gold forecast reflects a slightly edged-up momentum, trading near $3,980 amid renewed US political and economic instability and safe-haven demand. 

The prolonged Federal government shutdown, now in its sixth week, has halted major key data releases. The Congress faces headwinds as it fails to reach a consensus about the funding agreement. While the heightened partisan tensions in Washington have left investors cautious, they have underscored gold’s safe-haven appeal.

The fragile global risk sentiment, such as the weakened Asian and US equities from overevaluations and softer US economic data, boosts the demand for the yellow metal.

However, gold’s uptrend remains restricted amid a stronger greenback and the Fed’s hawkish tone. Fed Chair Powell’s uncertainty about a December rate cut indicates that last week’s Fed cut could be the last one for the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chances of another Fed cut have been reduced. 

At the same time, the dollar enjoys a steady position and holds near the three-month high 100.20 mark, further weighing on the bullion. Both US manufacturing data and ISM manufacturing PMI showed signs of sluggish growth. The ongoing US government shutdown remains in focus, aggravating the US economic uncertainty. 

Additionally, China has ended a long-standing tax exemption for some gold retailers, potentially affecting bullion’s demand from its most significant consumer. The easing trade situation has also reduced the key drivers of gold’s safe-haven buying. Regardless, the risk-off sentiment, bargain hunting, and potential economic uncertainty continue bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal. 
 

Gold Daily Key Events

The significant events in the day include:

• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• ISM Services PMI
• President Trump speaks 

On Wednesday, traders look ahead to the US ADP non-farm employment change, ISM services PMI, and President Trump’s speech to cue the economic performance. 
 

Gold Technical Forecast: Consolidating Gains Near $3,980 
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Gold 4-hour chart
 

Gold’s 4-hour chart shows consolidation around $3,980, reflecting mild pressure below the $4,000 level. The price stays below the key 50-day MA near $3,987 and the 100-day MA around $3,999, indicating repeated bullish failures. Meanwhile, the 200-day MA around $3,970 acts as a dynamic support zone.

The RSI stands under 50.0, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers. If the asset breaks $3,987, it could encourage buying towards $4,030. Conversely, if the metal fails to hold above 200-MA, it could push towards $3,930 ahead of $3,900. 
 

Support Levels

• $3,940
• $3,900
• $3,860
   

Resistance Levels

• $3,987
• $3,999
• $4,030

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