Forex Forecast And Cryptocurrencies Forecast For Dec. 17-21, 2018

First, a review of last week’s events:

  • EUR/USD. If the basic forecast for the past week had assumed a lateral movement in channel 1.1310-1.1415, the meeting of the European Central Bank and the subsequent conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi were called as the basic event. The ECB made a long-promised decision on January 1, 2019 to complete the quantitative easing program, and Draghi demotivated investors with a statement of increased risks. Based on this, the forecasts of the region’s economic growth for 2018-19 were lowered, to which the euro responded with a fall, but still remained within the limits of the stated channel.
  • The key support 1.1300 was broken already on Friday, December 14, when the Bundesbank lowered its forecasts for Germany's GDP and inflation. The regulator now expects that the growth of the economy in the outgoing year will not be 2.0%, as previously assumed, but only 1.5%. As for the 2019, the forecast here was lowered from 1.9% to 1.6%. The gloomy business performance indicators finally disappointed the market, and the pair went down sharply, reaching the local bottom at 1.1270. After that, a small rebound followed, returning it to the level of 1.1300, which turned from support to resistance;
  • GBP/USD. Pound is still ruled by Brexit. As expected, the vote in the British Parliament on the terms of a divorce from the EU didn't have a result. It was just canceled. As a result, by Wednesday, December 12, the pair dropped to the level of 1.2474, having lost 285 points compared to the beginning of the week. As for the end of the five-day week, it found itself near the mark of 1.25 85;
  • USD/JPY. Last week, 45% of experts voted for the pair's growth, and 113.20, 113.65 and 114.00 were indicated as resistance levels. The truth, as often happens, was in the middle, and the weekly high was noted at the height of 113.70. The final chord of the week sounded at the level of 113.35;
  • Cryptocurrencies. The news background in recent days has been quite blurred, and positive news alternated with negative news. Among the events that are encouraging are the possible release of the Japanese crypto exchange Coincheck to the US market, the record for Bitcoin analogue ETF demand in Switzerland, and the news that the embedded Ethereum wallet will appear in the Opera browser. A balance to these was the news that for the first time in history, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States fined the cryptocurrency bank AriseBank because of fraud allegations. The bulls were also frustrated by the news that due to the unfavorable situation in the cryptocurrency market, the mining giant Bitmain is closing its unit in Israel.
  • Against such a background, Bitcoin was growing and falling, and as a result, on the evening of Friday, December 14, it turned out to be where it had been a week ago, and even updated the low of the entire 2018, falling to the level of $3.225.
    As for the basic altcoins, such as Ethereum (ETH / USD), Litecoin (LTC / USD) and Ripple (XRP / USD), they obediently repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency all week.
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