• EUR/USD price eased as the dollar pulled back after three consecutive days of losses.
• Resilient Eurozone data pushes ECB to pause the easing cycle for longer.The 
• US Fed is expected to ease in December amid softer macro data.

The EUR/USD price eased modestly in Friday’s Asian session, briefly slipping below the 1.1600 level after posting three consecutive days of gains. The pullback highlights the dollar stabilizing after a multi-session decline. However, the greenback’s recovery remains fragile amid intensifying odds of a Fed rate cut in December.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing a 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting, which was as low as 31% in the last week. Market participants are also expecting three more cuts by the end of 2026.

This shift has been reinforced by the reports that Kevin Hassett has emerged as a leading candidate to take the position of Fed Chair. Investors view Hasset aligning with Trump’s preference to keep rates lower, prompting broader repricing in the dollar pairs.

On the European side, the euro received mild support from ECB minutes, which revealed policymakers favoring a pause in the easing cycle after delivering a 200-basis-point cut until 2025. Governing Council considered the policy to be in a good place, supported by resilient growth and inflation cooling to the target figure.

Eurozone consumer confidence improved to an 8-month high, supported by firm sentiment in retail trade, construction, and services. ECB officials have shown confidence in their economic progress, signaling a pause that may last longer.
 

EUR/USD Key Events Ahead

Markets have now turned their attention to Germany’s retail sales data due out ahead. Both monthly and yearly forecasts are expected to hold near 0.2%. Stronger data could reinforce the buying momentum, but softer data could deepen the downside correction. Traders are also awaiting German unemployment and flash CPI readings in the later session.

EUR/USD Technical Price Analysis: 200-MA Guarding Losses
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart
 

The EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows a consolidation near the 200-MA on a low-volume day. The bullish engulfing candle, which pierces the MA cluster, presents a solid base for the upside. The retesting of the 200-MA could trigger an upside continuation. However, the RSI is flat near 50.0, suggesting further ranging behavior.

The bullish momentum could aim for a recent swing high near 1.1615 ahead of November swing highs near 1.1655. On the other hand, a sustained downside break below the 200-MA near 1.1580 could trigger a further decline to 1.1550, followed by a potential target of 1.1500.

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