• The euro maintains a steady position as the greenback weighed down ahead of dovish Fed cut bets. 
• The softer-than-expected US inflation data reignites hopes for a Fed rate cut this week. 
• Markets face a delay in key economic releases amid the ongoing US government shutdown. 

The EUR/USD outlook holds steady at around the 1.600 level, ahead of key central bank decisions, macroeconomic releases, and a progressing global trade situation. 

The US-China trade talks progressed as President Trump and Xi discussed a preliminary framework, and they are excited to sign a deal in South Korea later this week. This move heightened the risk sentiment and pushed Asian equities to record highs, weighing on the greenback. 

From the US, the softer-than-expected September US inflation data released on Friday revealed a 3% YoY, paving the way for the probability of a 25 basis point cut this week, lifting the euro and weighing on the dollar. 

In the Eurozone, the investors exercise caution as they look forward to the decisions of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. The markets expect steady interest rates and mild policy changes in the meeting. The euro’s upside remains restricted amid weak inflation and slow growth.
 

EUR/USD Daily Key Events

On Monday, the ongoing US government shutdown delayed the key economic data release. 
 

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Neutral Bias Above 1.1600, Awaits a Catalyst
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart
 

The EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows the pair trading above the 1.1600 level, signaling a subdued momentum. The price stays above the key 20-MA near 1.1610 but below the confluence of 50- and 100-MA around 1.1650. Meanwhile, it remains well below the 200-MA near 1.1700, a significant resistance zone capping the upside.

The RSI is at 53, reflecting the pair’s range-bound movement. A decisive breach above the 1.1695 level could extend gains toward 1.1750 and 1.1800. Conversely, a drop below the 1.1610 level could trigger a downside towards 1.1570 and 1.530.
 

Support Levels

• 1.1610
• 1.1570
• 1.1530
   

Resistance Levels

• 1.1635
• 1.1695
• 1.1730

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