• The euro remains steady amid signs of resilient growth and the ECB’s policy guidance.
• The USD strengthens amid expectations of two additional rate cuts by year-end.  
• Traders await comments from FOMC members Bowman and Barr for further policy and economic directions. 

The EUR/USD outlook shows the pair under pressure, maintaining a cautious market sentiment amid mixed signals from the Eurozone and the US. The euro holds steady due to resilient growth signs and the ECB’s policy.

The steady euro is supported by expectations that the European Central Bank could maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% until 2027. A Reuters poll revealed that the ECB has ended its rate-cut cycle with inflation stabilizing around 2%. The euro sees a modestly stable growth. ECB President Lagarde supports enhanced financial integration and a common European stock exchange. This highlights the Eurozone’s rising structural stability. 

In the US, the US DXY is close to 99.00 as cautious market optimism prevails due to potential improvement between US-China tensions and expectations of Fed easing. President Trump’s remarks about potential trade agreements with President Xi Jinping boosted the USD dollar. 

However, the broader market sentiment remains cautious due to two potential Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown has halted key economic data, causing low visibility for investors. These factors likely contribute to a softer dollar bias in the medium term.
 

EUR/USD Key Daily Events 

The major events in the day include 

• FOMC Member Bowman speaks
• FOMC Member Barr speaks
• Consumer confidence
• Existing Home Sales

On Thursday, traders look forward to the speeches by FOMC Bowman and FOMC Barr for insights into the economic and policy direction. 
 

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Pressured Below Key MAs
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart
 

The EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows the pair trading below 1.1600,  consolidating from a slight pullback, indicating a bearish bias. The price remains below the key 50- and 200-period MAs, hinting at limited recovery potential near the 1.1700 level. Meanwhile, the 20-MA is below the 50-MA, reflecting a short-term downtrend. 

The RSI is at 40, showing attempts to approach the oversold territory. Recovery attempts toward the 1.1720 level have failed, suggesting a high resistance zone. The pair will likely continue the downtrend if buyers reclaim control over the 1.1700 and 1.1720 levels. 
 

Support Zones

• 1.1575 (Recent swing low)
• 1.1540 (Demand zone)
• 1.1500 (Psychological support)
   

Resistance Zones

• 1.1650 (100-MA)
• 1.1700 (200-MA)
• 1.1730 (Recent swing high)

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