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• EUR/USD rebounds from five-month lows despite hawkish tone surrounding the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
• ECB member Gediminas Šimkus indicated that there is a probability of more than 50% for more than three rate cuts to occur in 2024.
• Traders may seek refuge in the safe-haven US Dollar due to escalated tensions in the Middle East.

EUR/USD rebounds from a five-month low of 1.0622 reached last Friday, hovering around 1.0660 during early European trading hours on Monday. The EUR/USD pair faced downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) revealed diverging monetary policy outlooks.

Investors await the release of Eurozone Industrial Production data for March on Monday. Furthermore, the investors’ focus will shift to US Retail Sales figures due to be released later in the day.

The ECB signaled that if underlying inflation continues to decelerate as anticipated, there's a possibility of contemplating a reduction in policy rates in June. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears to be reassessing its monetary easing strategies in light of persistent US inflation and strong macroeconomic indicators. Thursday's data revealed that core producer inflation in the United States (US) surged year-over-year in March, surpassing expectations for the increase.

Traders adopt a cautious approach amidst heightened geopolitical tensions, which may prompt them to seek refuge in the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), potentially putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. There's the possibility of Israel retaliating against Iran's attack. On Saturday, Iran launched explosive drones and missiles targeting military installations in Israel. Israel successfully intercepted most of the incoming projectiles, according to Reuters.

On Monday, Gediminas Šimkus, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, stated that there is a greater than 50% likelihood of more than three rate cuts occurring this year, as per Reuters. Šimkus also mentioned that geopolitical events, such as an escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, could potentially postpone the first rate cut to July from June.
 

EUR/USD

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