• The Euro trims some gains following the 1.5% rebound registered on Friday after Nonfarm Payrolls data.
• Weak US employment data triggered fresh concerns about a recession and boosted hopes of Fed cuts.
• EUR/USD remains capped below previous support levels at 1.1600.

The EUR/USD is posting marginal losses on Monday. Investors are starting to assimilate Friday's grim US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, but the higher hopes that these figures may have tipped the scales for a Fed cut next month are acting as headwinds for the US Dollar's recovery.

The Euro (EUR) remains steady above 1.1550, after pulling back from last Friday's highs at 1.1600. The pair holds most of the gains taken on Friday after bouncing from the multi-week lows at 1.1400 reached before the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Data from the Eurozone, however, has not been particularly supportive, as the unexpected deterioration in investors' confidence shifted investors' focus back to the weak economic outlook and the lopsided trade deal with the US. Eurozone's Sentix Investors' Confidence Index tumbled to a three-month low of -3.7 in August, from the 4.5 reading in the previous month, against market expectations of further improvement to an 8.0 reading.

On Friday, Investors dumped the US Dollar on Friday, following a much weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Data from the Labour Department showed that the US economy created just 73,000 jobs in July, against expectations of 110,000, while more than 250,000 jobs were downwardly revised from the previous two months.

US President Donald Trump added to the market turmoil, killing the messenger. Shortly after the data, the US President announced the dismissal of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of rigging jobs figures, according to him, "to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad".

Also on Friday, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation, which will be effective on August 8, giving Trump the chance of replacing her with another official more inclined to support his calls for lower interest rates. This has also contributed to heightening hopes of immediate Fed rate cuts.
 

Euro PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
 

Daily digest market movers: Doubts about the US economic health weigh on the USD

• The US Dollar was hit on Friday by a downbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls report, especially for the downward revisions of May and June's figures, which showed much weaker job creation than previously reported. June's data was revised to 14,000 from 147,000, and May's reading to 19,000 from the previously reported 144,000. These figures have revived fears of an economic recession.
• Beyond that, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) revealed that the sector's activity contracted further in June, with the PMI falling to 48.0 in July from 49.0 in June. The decline further disappointed markets, which were expecting an improvement to 49.5, and increased concerns about the momentum of the US economy.
• Investors saw these figures as the tipping point to force the Fed to adopt a less restrictive policy to support economic growth. Futures markets saw bets of a September rate cut surging to 80%, from less than 40% before Friday's figures, and at least another rate cut before the end of the year, according to data from the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool.
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic acknowledged that Friday's employment data puts the bank in "a difficult environment" and that the revisions will have an impact, but refused to hint at an immediate rate cut as, he said, inflationary trends are still an ongoing concern.
• In the calendar on Monday, the Eurozone Sentix Investors' Confidence Index is expected to have improved to an 8.0 reading in August from July's 4.5.
• At 14:00 GMT, in the US, factory Orders for June are seen declining by 5.2% following the 8.2% increase registered in May.
   

EUR/USD recovery stalls below 1.1600
 

EUR/USD has shrugged off the weakness seen last week, as investors' concerns about the US economy have sent disappointment about the EU-US trade deal to the backseat. The pair bounced up from lows but remains capped below 1.1600, with price action moving within an expanding wedge, a pattern that highlights an emotional market.

The immediate trend is bullish, but last week's candle showed an impulsive bearish move, and the pair's recovery has been contained below the 1.1600 area, which was a support level in mid-June. Further up, the next targets would be the July 23 and 25 lows at the 1.1715-1.1720 area, and the trendline resistance at 1.1760.

On the downside, intra-day support is at 1.1550, ahead of another intra-day level at 1.1515. Below here, the next downside target would be Friday's low, at 1.1390.

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