• The euro has been fairly noisy during the trading session against the US dollar, rising and falling and rising and falling again.
• We find ourselves at the 1.18 level. This is an area that was the top of the overall consolidation area that we'd been in.
• So, a little bit of market memory makes a whole lot of sense. Well, I have to wait and see whether or not the market actually plays out the way we would anticipate based on the interest rate cut. But there are some questions. Is there something that the Federal Reserve sees that means that there's trouble with the economy?
   

US Economy Drives World Economy

Remember, there is the old expression, when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. We might be seeing the beginning of that. It is worth noting that the euro shot all the way into the 1.19 handle and then plunged during the previous session after that FOMC interest rate decision. So, it is a bit interesting to see that we don't really have the momentum to take off to the upside during the Thursday session.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

If we break down from here, we almost certainly will reenter the previous consolidation region, and maybe test the 50 day EMA. If we were to break above the top of the candlestick from the Wednesday session, I think that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign and have the euro looking to the 1.20 level. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out because I do think we're at a very important spot here.
 

The Federal Reserve cutting interest rates a lot of times will boost certain things, and it will drive the value of the US dollar down. But if there's any sign whatsoever of concern, it actually has the opposite effect, so we'll have to wait and see. Clearly, polarity is not a thing at the moment.

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