• Euro trading remains choppy as price action gravitates around major technical levels, with the 50-day EMA acting as a key guide.
• Downside levels at $1.15 and $1.14 remain critical, while upside conviction requires a break above $1.17.

The Euro has been pretty noisy during the trading session here on Wednesday, but at this point, the one thing being watched is the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is a major technical analysis indicator that a lot of people watch. The downtrend line has been very important as well.
 

Fading Rallies?

All things being equal, this is a market that should open up the possibility of fading rallies going forward. The market could go down to the $1.15 level rather quickly. If it drops below there, then the $1.14 level comes into play. The $1.14 level sits right around the 200-day EMA as well. Once there was a major swing to the downside that saw a lot of buying in the late part of July, there would likely be a certain amount of market memory in that area.
 

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To the upside, it is not until a break above the $1.17 level that buying becomes a consideration, and even then, the $1.18 level has to be watched very closely. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is the only thing that people seem to be paying attention to, and people are starting to bet that maybe they will.
 

Ultimately, though, it appears to be only a matter of time before the US dollar strengthens because the Federal Reserve does have to cut rates. That is generally a bad sign for the global economy, and in the end, that tends to favor the US dollar. Lately, there has been a little bit of a jump higher, but in the big scheme of things, it does not change what has been seen for several months.

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